Summing Up The Week

The holiday-shortened week didn’t deliver a lot of news so there were no giant moves in the market. After griding lower earlier in the week, stocks made a recovery on Wednesday, but, again, none of these moves were that dramatic.

Let’s take a look at what little market-moving news there was…

Market News

Consumer confidence dipped in March

On Tuesday, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence survey showed confidence dropped for those under the age of 55 and rose slightly for those 55+ in March, reported Business Insider. As a whole, the index came in at 104.7 which was a bit lower than expectations for 106.7.

Consumers expressed pessimism about the future, with many expecting inflation to remain, once again pointing to the problem for the average American to understand the difference between deflation and disinflation. Inflation is slowing but prices are still rising because we are experiencing disinflation as opposed to deflation which would be decreasing prices.

The discrepancy between older Americans and younger Americans was worth noting. “Confidence rose among consumers aged 55 and over but deteriorated for those under 55,” said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. “Separately, consumers in the $50,000-$99,999 income group reported lower confidence in March, while confidence improved slightly in all other income groups.”

Next Week’s Gameplan

Thanks to the holiday-shortened week, we won’t know the results of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index until the market starts trading on Monday as the PCE will be released tomorrow (Friday, March 29). Given that the PCE is the Federal Reserve’s key gauge of inflation, it will be interesting to see if it comes in hot just as the CPI did earlier in March.

Next week, we get additional catalysts including PMI, ISM, and March’s jobs report as well as a lot of Fedspeak. Additionally, since it will be a full trading week, we might get to see a lot of volatility, too, as the market digests all the data.

I hope everyone has a great holiday weekend and I’ll see you back here next Friday, friends!

This Week in Play

Stay tuned for this week’s episodes of my two portfolios Investments in Play and Speculation in Play coming online later this weekend!

Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

Bitcoin’s in No Man’s Land…

The Bulls took the reins to Bitcoin over the past week, causing the crypto to rally over $71,000 once more only to have the Bears shove them aside on Wednesday to send Bitcoin careening below $70K. The swings have been dramatic, too, with huge price moves happening within 15-30 minutes. There’s no question that no one really knows the next big move for the giant orange coin.

The Bullish Case

Bulls argue that the recovery from around $60K all the way back into the $70,000s means that the bull market is still very much on. Many Bulls believe the pullback was mild, which is historically true. Typically, during a bull market cycle, Bitcoin will pull back -20% or more at a time before heading higher. So far, Bitcoin only pulled back -17.59% after making a new all-time high.

The Bearish Case

Bears make the point that when Bitcoin made new all-time highs in the past, it did so with great gusto. When Bitcoin flew threw its past all-time high around $20,000 in 2020, the crypto didn’t stop rallying and take a break until nearly $40,000. So far this cycle, Bitcoin broke through its all-time high around $69K, but petered out around $73.8K, not the most convincing move for the Bears.

Bitcoin Trade Update

Current Allocation: 2.033% (-21.81% since Last Update)
Current Per-Coin Price: $69,899.46 (-0.50% since Last Update)
Current Profit/Loss Status: +1.50% (+11.22% since Last Update)

Even though it was a shorter week, it was certainly a busy one! Bitcoin’s volatility has me bouncing from buying to selling and back to buying… sometimes in the same 24-hour period!

One Last Buy…

I was able to make one buy last weekend at $63,039.78 (after fees) before Bitcoin exploded higher. The buy lowered my per-coin cost -0.29% from $70,247.36 to $70,047.14 and increased my allocation +2.58% from 2.600% to 2.667%. Bitcoin’s rally sent the crypto shooting above my cost basis which meant, of course, it was time to start trimming and taking profits.

From Buying to Selling…

I made a total of 20 small sales giving me an average selling price of $70,374.46 (after fees). The sales lowered my per-coin cost just -0.15% from $70,047.14 to $69,938.71 but, more importantly, freed up my allocation by -25.01% from 2.667% to 2.000%.

Back to Buying…

However, when Bitcoin rolled over on Wednesday, it was time for me to once again start buying. I only made one buy at $68,979.79 (after fees) before Bitcoin found support. The buy lowered my per-coin cost -$31.35 from $69,938.71 to $69,907.36 and increased my allocation +3.24% from 2.000% to 2.067%.

… and Back to Selling.

As of writing, Bitcoin has already triggered another stop order which filled at $70,392.79 (after fees). This sale lowered my per-coin cost another $7.90 from $69,907.36 to $69,899.46 and decreased my allocation -3.4% from 2.067% to 2.033%.

WHEW!

From here, I will continue to trim off profits and add if we see Bitcoin break down again. Given the amount of significant buying we’re seeing in the $60K region, I’ve 5X’ed the size of my starting buys up to 0.167% allocations with each buy to get more aggressive.

Bitcoin Buying Targets

Using Moving Averages and supporting trend-lines as guides, here is my plan for my next ten (10) buying quantities and prices:

0.167% @ $68,580
0.167% @ $67,827
0.167% @ $64,957
0.167% @ $63,385
0.167% @ $61,606
0.167% @ $61,031
0.333% @ $60,352
0.333% @ $58,927
0.333% @ $57,459
0.333% @ $56,153

Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto…

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges – Gemini and Coinbase – in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin’s price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• Later in March, Bitcoin dropped -18% to a low of $60,771.14.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.