Summing Up The Week
HAPPY 4TH BIRTHDAY TO GET IRKED!
Can you believe that it’s been FOUR years since I started the Get Irked website?! Back then, it was just a young, fledgling investing website figuring out its way. Now, it’s an… older, fledgling investing website figuring out its way! LOL!
Thank you to all of my readers for your ongoing support over the past four years, and here’s to another four years… if not more!
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Back to your regularly scheduled Week in Review…
After last week’s bounty of news, this week was comparably calmer with only a few key economic tidbits to tide us over during a week chockfull of earnings reports which truly drove the markets.
Let’s take a look at the market news from the week…
Market News
Job openings weakest since Sep 2021, may confirm U.S. recession
On Tuesday, the Labor Department released figures showing job openings dropped to their lowest level since September 2021, falling to 10.7 million versus the 11.14 million expected, reported CNBC.
Both the Federal Reserve and the White House tried to point to a strong labor market as an explanation for why the United States is not currently in a recession, however, the job market has historically been a lagging indicator of recession. In other words, the job market typically weakens after the U.S. economy has already been in a recession for some time, and these new figures may reinforce this historical trend.
If the U.S. is in recession, the Fed may pause or ease its tightening cycle sooner than announced at the meeting last week. However, should the Fed pause, it’s hard to know whether the market will take that as a positive catalyst to head higher (as it has taken bad news as good news for the majority of 2022), or if this will finally be the negative sign about the true lack of strength in the economy which will send the market through its 2022 lows as some bearish analysts predict.
Payrolls increased 528K in July vs 258K expected, bad news?
The volatile market whipsaw action continued on Friday when the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported payrolls increased 528,000 in July and unemployment was 3.5%, far better than the expectations for 258,000 and 3.6%, respectively, reported CNBC. Of course, the markets threw away the rally and sold off on the back of what should be good news because a strong labor market means the Federal Reserve will continue to hike rates in its ongoing war against inflation.
“There’s no way to take the other side of this. There’s not a lot of, ‘Yeah, but,’ other than it’s not positive from a market or Fed perspective,” said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. “For the economy, this is good news.”
Next Week’s Gameplan
As we enter the third quarter, this is when things get tricky thanks to something called “seasonality.” Historically, over the past decade, the markets sell off between -4.5% to -20%+ from the high in the summer (specifically, July or August) to the low between October-December (check out this week’s YouTube video for more on this pattern).
Of course, there’s an exception to every rule, and, in this case, that’s 2017 where the market closed the year around +4.6% higher than the summer high. Given that 2017 is the only year without a selloff in the past ten, I’m opting to focus on the bearish downside in the coming months and am choosing to take profits strategically while leaving my next buying price targets at the 2022 lows for my positions.
If we don’t see a selloff between September-October, I’ll change my strategy, accordingly, but given the recent bull rally we’ve had over the past couple of weeks, everything is playing out according to the historical plan.
I’ll see YOU next week!
This Week in Play
Stay tuned for this week’s episodes of my two portfolios Investments in Play and Speculation in Play coming online later this weekend!
Crytpo Corner
Important Disclaimer
Get Irked contributors are not professional advisers. Discussions of positions should not be taken as recommendations to buy or sell. All investments carry risk and all readers must accept their own risks. Get Irked recommends anyone interested in investing or trading any asset class consult with a professional investment adviser to determine if an investment idea is suitable to them and their investment goals.
Bitcoin Price (in USD)
%
Weekly Change
Bitcoin Price Action
With no news events, price action drove crypto this week…
Bitcoin continued its rally after last Friday’s update, breaking through the high it set on Friday at $24,450.00 to create a new monthly high at $24,666.00 on Saturday before pulling back.
Since Bitcoin is currently still pulling back, there is no real weekly low set as the crypto takes on lower-lows, however, I would eye the Next Support of Last Resort trendline to potentially provide some support around the $21,700 mark.
Should Bitcoin continue to break down further, the next key level of support is the weekly low set at $20,715.00 followed by July’s low at $18,892.00, and then followed by the 2022 low at $17,567.45.
The Bullish Case
Bulls remain ridiculously bullish pointing to a metric supposedly indicating a “BTC buying spree” and news about Blackrock using Coinbase for institutional crypto exposure as reasons to get incredibly excited about Bitcoin’s upside and the bottom being in for 2022, historical trends or macroeconomic concerns be damned!
The Bearish Case
Rather than reaching for outlandish support for their theses, the Bears patiently point to the overall macro trend, geopolitical economic concerns, and market seasonality as reasons to not get excited about any upside potential for Bitcoin. I fully agree.
Of course, I do still have a nearly 16% allocation in Bitcoin, currently, but I have no reason to believe the crypto should be strong in the coming weeks in months. After all, 2018’s epic crash didn’t occur until November-December, so the end of the year can still be (painfully) exciting for Bitcoin HODLers like myself.
Bitcoin Trade Update
Current Allocation: 15.897% (Unchanged since last update)
Current Per-Coin Price: $23,797.16 (Unchanged since last update)
Current Profit/Loss Status: -2.142% (-0.801% since last update)
Bitcoin’s rangebound trading over the past week left me sitting on my hands. Even though the crypto did cross over my per-coin cost once more, it didn’t make enough progress for me to take more profits than I already did last week.
From here, my next sell target remains around the $26,900-$27,000 mark, and I’ll start buying if we see Bitcoin dip down to $20K once more. In the meantime, I’ll twiddle my thumbs as everyone waits for the next big crypto move… up or down.
Bitcoin Buying Targets
Using Moving Averages and supporting trend-lines as guides, here is my plan for my next ten (10) buying quantities and prices:
0.142% @ $20,286
0.198% @ $19,217
0.340% @ $18,402
0.453% @ $17,643
1.134% @ $16,236
1.417% @ $15,277
1.417% @ $14,518
1.417% @ $13,365
1.417% @ $12,372
2.834% @ $10,785
No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.
While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.
Here are some of Bitcoin’s price movements over the past couple of years:
- In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
- Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
- In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
- In December 2019, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
- In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
- In March 2020, Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
- Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
- Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
- In February 2021, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
- Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
- In April 2021, Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
- In June 2021, Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
- In November 2021, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
- In June 2022, Bitcoin crashed -75% to a low of $17,567.45.
- In July 2022, Bitcoin rallied +40% to a high of $24,666.00.
Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…
What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?
The only reason I speculate in the cryptocurrency space is I truly believe Bitcoin isn’t headed to zero. I am prepared for that possibility, however, by knowing I could potentially lose all of the capital I’ve allocated to this speculative investment. Professional advisers recommend speculating with no more than 5% of an investor’s overall assets. Personally, I’ve allocated less than that to speculating in crypto. I feel that anyone who doesn’t fully believe in the long-term viability of cryptocurrency would be better served not speculating in the space. On a good day, this asset class isn’t suitable for those with weak stomachs. On volatile days, the sector can induce nausea in the most iron-willed speculator. If a speculator isn’t confident in the space, the moves will cause mistakes to be made.
