Summing Up The Week

The shortened four-day week going into the Christmas Holiday brought with it a great deal of excitement, kicking off with a selloff that was followed by a significant bounce. 

Let’s take a look at the news that moved the markets this week…

Market News

Omicron fears cause market selloff

Despite expectations that COVID-19 case numbers would rise significantly over the weekend, all of the major averages dropped on Monday as investors dealt with fears over the omicron variant, reported CNBC. More than 156,000 new cases were reported in the U.S. on Friday alone, according to the CDC.

To cap things off, both economic and political concerns still remain at the forefront of investors’ minds with the bearish move “reflecting growing uncertainty surrounding whether the omicron surge will bring new widespread economic shutdowns, an unexpected shelving of additional fiscal stimulus from President Biden’s Build Back Better plan, and a breach by the S&P 500 index of its 50-day moving average,” said Jim Paulsen, Chief Investment Strategist at the Leuthold Group.

FDA authorizes Pfizer COVID treatment pill

After weeks (if not months) of radio-silence from the inept and nearly defunct Food and Drug Administration (FDA), the FDA announced Wednesday that it granted emergency-use authorization to Pfizer’s (PFE) oral treatment pill to fight COVID-19, reported CNBC.

Whereas other countries’ equivalents of the FDA, CDC, and National Institute of Health have teamed up during the pandemic to provide a united voice, the U.S.’s health organizations have been woefully incompetent throughout nearly the entirety of the pandemic from initially touting masks as useless against the virus to flip-flopping on their information releases, basically destroying what credibility the agenices ever had with the American public.

Rant aside, the better-later-than-never approval of Pfizer’s oral COVID treatment could provide needed relief in the fight against COVID. “Today’s authorization introduces the first treatment for COVID-19 that is in the form of a pill that is taken orally — a major step forward in the fight against this global pandemic,” Dr. Patrizia Cavazzoni, director of the FDA’s Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, said in a statement. “This authorization provides a new tool to combat COVID-19 at a crucial time in the pandemic as new variants emerge and promises to make antiviral treatment more accessible to patients who are at high risk for progression to severe COVID-19.”

Pfizer reiterated Wednesday that it is prepared to begin shipping the drug immediately.

Omicron accounts for 90% of COVID cases

The FDA’s approval of Pfizer’s COVID pill couldn’t come sooner, as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced Wednesday that the rapidly-spreading omicron variant of COVID accounts for 90% of the cases in some parts of the country, reported CNBC.

CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said the variant made up more than 73% of all cases in the U.S. as of Saturday. In further detail, she pointed out the strain represents up to 90% of cases in the eastern Atlantic states, parts of the Midwest, South and northern Pacific states.

“This rapid increase in the proportion of omicron circulating around the country is similar to what we’ve seen across the world,” Walensky told reporters during a White House Covid-19 press briefing.

Next Week’s Gameplan

With only a single trading week left in 2021, investors are keeping their eyes peeled and ears out, hoping for a Santa Claus Rally to take us through the end of the year and into the first few trading days of 2022.

As for me, I want to take the opportunity to wish everyone a happy holiday season, regardless of your religious denomination or if you have none at all. Stay warm, safe, healthy, and happy over the next week, and I’ll see you next week just in time to ring in the new year!

This Week in Play

Stay tuned for this week’s episodes of my two portfolios Investments in Play and Speculation in Play coming online later this weekend!

Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

Cryptos wobble but they don’t fall down?

Bitcoin spent much of the week maintaining the trading range it established following its flash-crash weeks ago, with last week’s $45,496.57 weekly low holding not once but twice, once on Saturday and again on Monday.

When it comes to Bitcoin, a third or fourth test of a low usually results in the low breaking, however, this rule was broken earlier in 2021, so who knows where Bitcoin will head next.

The Bullish Case

Bulls continue to argue that the retail and institutional accumulation of Bitcoin will protect it from further downside, and that prices in excess of six-figures are very near in the future, although most if not all but the most Bullish analysts concede that a break of $100K will not happen in 2021.

The Bearish Case

Bears still hold on to the $20K price target as being what Bitcoin will hit before it breaks through to all-time highs. Many Bears believe that Bitcoin’s current price consolidation will result in a break to the downside, a retest of $29K, and an eventual drop to $20K and potentially lower.

Bitcoin Trade Update

Current Allocation: 2.276% (Unchanged from last update)
Current Per-Coin Price: $50,716.42 (Unchanged from last update)
Current Profit/Loss Status: -3.886% (+5.551% from last update)

Another week, another update with, well, no update. If there’s one lesson I learned from having my butt smacked over and over again in 2018, it was to be incredibly patient with the crypto market. While it has been nearly three weeks since my last move in this trade, there’s been no real direction given from Bitcoin.

Without real market direction – either Bullish or Bearish – the only prudent course of action is to take no action. I know I’m a worthless wealth of trading adages, but one worth remembering is “taking no action is, in itself, an action.” In other words, if you don’t know what to do, do nothing. Doing nothing is still doing something.

And, with that moment of zen… on to next week. Happy Holidays, everyone! 

Bitcoin Buying Targets

Using Moving Averages and supporting trend-lines as guides, here is my plan for my next ten (10) buying quantities and prices:

0.231% @ $46,085
0.433% @ $43,856
0.577% @ $42,152
0.577% @ $40,103
0.577% @ $38,461
2.180% @ $34,369
4.835% @ $29,580
7.245% @ $25,972
6.710% @ $24,164
18.06% @ $20,824

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (sometimes a drop of near -90% or a gain of up to +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin’s price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
  In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• From June 2019, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• From December 2019’s low, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51 in February 2020.
• In March 2020, Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February 2021, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In March 2021, Bitcoin rallied +44% to a new all-time high of $61,788.45.
• Later in March, Bitcoin dropped -19% to a low of $50,305.00.
• In April 2021, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June 2021, Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November 2021, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In December 2021, Bitcoin dropped -39% to a low of $42,333.00.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

The only reason I speculate in the cryptocurrency space is I truly believe Bitcoin isn’t headed to zero.

I am prepared for that possibility, however, by knowing I could potentially lose all of the capital I’ve allocated to this speculative investment. Professional advisers recommend speculating with no more than 5% of an investor’s overall assets. Personally, I’ve allocated less than that to speculating in crypto.

I feel that anyone who doesn’t fully believe in the long-term viability of cryptocurrency would be better served not speculating in the space.

On a good day, this asset class isn’t suitable for those with weak stomachs. On volatile days, the sector can induce nausea in the most iron-willed speculator. If a speculator isn’t confident in the space, the moves will cause mistakes to be made.

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.