September 25, 2020 

 

Get Irked's Speculation in Play - September 25, 2020

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The Week's Biggest Winner & Loser

Twitter (TWTR)

So, when the Dept. of Justice released new legislation to limit tech's liability shield, you'd think that'd be bad news for a social media stock like Twitter (TWTR), right?

Not so much. TWTR popped +9.19% in a crappy week for the markets to easily earn itself the spot of the week's Biggest Winner. 

General Electric (GE)

Wow! That was a short celebration. General Electric (GE) went from being last week's winner to this week's Biggest Loser down -11.19% when COVID started rearing its ugly head everywhere in Europe (and the U.S.).

Portfolio Allocation

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Positions

%

Target Position Size

Get Irked - Speculation in Play - Current Holdings - September 25, 2020

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Portfolio Breakdown

Get Irked - Year-to-Date Performance - Investments in Play vs. Speculation in Play - 2020 Year-to-Date Performance

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Year-to-Date Performance

Current Position Performance

Pinterest (PINS)

+567.13%*

1st Buy: 5/16/2019 @ $25.72
Current Per-Share: -($10.25)*

AMD (AMD)

+525.22%*

1st Buy: 1/10/2019 @ $19.54
Current Per-Share: (-$5.14)*

Yeti (YETI)

+479.96%*

1st Buy: 2/26/2019 @ $23.23
Current Per-Share: (-$44.50)*

Twitter (TWTR)

+198.88%*

1st Buy: 10/30/2019 @ $29.79
Current Per-Share: (-$45.02)*

Virgin Galactic (SPCE)

+189.54%*

1st Buy: 10/31/2019 @ $9.87
Current Per-Share: (-$0.15)*

Carnival Cruise (CCL)

+169.90%*

1st Buy: 3/12/2020 @ $17.25
Current Per-Share: (-1.01)*

Airlines ETF (JETS)

+163.78%*

1st Buy: 5/14/2020 @ $11.30
Current Per-Share: (-$1.26)*

Tradeweb Mkts (TW)

+157.08%

1st Buy: 4/8/2019 @ $39.22
Current Per-Share: $21.47

Chevron (CVX)

+32.32%

1st Buy: 3/12/2020 @ $76.94
Current Per-Share: $54.29

SPY 10/23 Put Spreads

-0.21%

Cost: $1.4931
Current Value: $1.49

General Electric (GE)

-7.24%

1st Buy: 3/6/2020 @ $9.40
Current Per-Share: $6.60

Revolve Group (RVLV)

-15.73%

1st Buy: 6/13/2019 @ $39.06
Current Per-Share: $20.00

* Indicates a position where the capital investment was sold.
Profit % for * positions = Current Gross Profit / Original Capital Investment

Super-Speculative Basket

Airlines ETF

JETS

Carnival Cruise

CCL

Virgin Galactic

SPCE

What is the Super-Speculative Basket?

The Super Speculative Basket ("Super-Spec") is made up of a handful of stocks so incredibly volatile that I'm uncomfortable giving any of them full allocations even in my Speculation in Play portfolio, instead dividing a single allocation among all of them.

Currently, my Super-Spec stocks are as follows: the Airlines ETF (JETS), Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL), and Virgin Galactic (SPCE). They are listed as a single allocation in the portfolio breakdown chart each week. 

This Week’s Moves

SPY 10/23 325-320 Put Spreads: Insurance

The S&P 500 sold off more than 10% from September 2-18, so when it bounced on Tuesday, I felt it was a good time to buy some more insurance should we see significant volatility in the next month.

With the SPY around $330, I bought the 325-320 put spreads that expire on options expiration Friday in October (the 3rd Friday of the month is "expiration Friday" and is October 23, in this case).

I sold the 320 puts for $5.32 and bought the 325 puts for $6.81 making the cost of each put spread I bought $1.49 ($6.81- $5.32 = $1.49). The maximum I can sell each spread for is the difference between the puts I bought and the puts I sold or $5.00 ($325 - $320 = $5.00).

The maximum profit? $3.51 per spread or a +235.57% gain which could potentially more than triple my original investment if the SPY closes lower than $320 on the date of expiration - a drop of slightly more than 3% from Tuesday's $330 price.  Basically, I'm risking 3.77% of my portfolio to make as much as 12.57%.

My spreads were worth $1.49 on Friday, down -0.21% from my purchase price.

Twitter (TWTR): Profit-Taking

Twitter (TWTR) popped nearly more than 7% on Wednesday following the unveiling of Trump's Department of Justice's legislation to reform the legal liability shield held by the technology sector.

The result?

Twitter making new all-time highs and me taking profits when a sell order I had in place filled at $45.00. The sale locked in +51.06% in gains on some of the initial buy for the position made back on October 30, 2019 at $29.79.

I have now pulled out $45.00 of profit for each share remaining in the position. My next buy target is $30.40 and I have no sell targets for the remaining shares at this time so I can watch where Twitter heads from here.

TWTR closed the week at $43.84, down -2.58% from where I sold Wednesday. 

Want Further Clarification?

As always, if you have questions about any of my positions or have positions of your own that you're curious about - feel free to leave a comment below!