March 27, 2020 

 

Get Irked's Speculation in Play - March 27, 2020

Click image to bring up larger version.

The Week's Biggest Winner & Loser

Virgin Galactic (SPCE)

Ya gotta hand it to Virgin Galactic (SPCE)... most redhot IPOs get destroyed during a market selloff, yet, Virgin Galactic is our Biggest Winner with a gain of +36.95% and the only holding in our line-up to have a gain on the year, and a 33.16% gain at that!

Twitter (TWTR)

In a week where every position saw gains, it's hard to look at the +5.59% Twitter (TWTR) earned as making it the "Biggest Loser," however, that's the way it went this week!

Portfolio Allocation

Click charts for enlarged versions

Positions

%

Target Position Size

Click image to bring up larger version.

Portfolio Breakdown

Click image to bring up larger version.

Year-to-Date Performance

Current Position Performance

AMD (AMD)*

+469.33%*

1st Buy: 1/10/2019 @ $19.54
Current Per-Share: -($1.29)*

Virgin Galactic (SPCE)*

+279.71%*

1st Buy: 10/31/2019 @ $9.87
Current Per-Share: (-$0.15)*

Yeti (YETI)

+29.20%

1st Buy: 2/26/2019 @ $23.23
Current Per-Share: $16.15

Carnival Cruise (CCL)

+20.82%

1st Buy: 3/12/2020 @ $17.25
Current Per-Share: $11.93

Tradeweb Mkts (TW)

+18.72%

1st Buy: 4/8/2019 @ $39.22
Current Per-Share: $35.50

Pinterest (PINS)

+12.17%

1st Buy: 5/16/2019 @ $25.72
Current Per-Share: $13.32

Chevron (CVX)

+3.30%

1st Buy: 3/12/2020 @ $76.94
Current Per-Share: $66.58

General Electric (GE)

-1.03%

1st Buy: 3/6/2020 @ $9.40
Current Per-Share: $7.70

Twitter (TWTR)

-2.73%

1st Buy: 10/30/2019 @ $29.79
Current Per-Share: $26.00

SPY Put Spreads 4/3

-26.80%

Cost: $1.24
Current Value: $0.91

Revolve Group (RVLV)

-61.53%

1st Buy: 6/13/2019 @ $39.06
Current Per-Share: $21.58

* Indicates a position where the capital investment was sold.
Profit % for * positions = Current Gross Profit / Original Capital Investment

This Week’s Moves

Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL): Profit-Taking

Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) flew into the end of the week along with the rest of the market, triggering sell orders I had in place filling at an average price of $17.69.

The shares sold took +33.41% profits from my average per-share price of $13.26 and a whopping +87.2% in profits from my lowest purchase at $9.45 last week.

The orders also reduced my per-share cost by -10.03% from $13.26 to $11.93, but, more importantly, reduced the allocation size so I can add back in if/when we see another pullback.

My next buy price target for the stock is near its recent low at $8.10 with my next point to take profits at $24.80.

CCL closed the week at $14.41, down -18.54% from my average selling price.

Pinterest (PINS): Profit-Taking

When the market bounced after the passage of the stimulus package, it was time to take profits in Pinterest (PINS), the portfolio's largest position exceeding the 10.00% target allocation.

I made some sells throughout the week landing an average selling price of $15.00 and locking in +17.28% in gains from my average buying price of $12.79 from the purchases made since the start of the selloff. The sale reduced my per-share cost negligibly by -0.97% from $13.45 to $13.32.

My next sell target is $17.74 and my next buy target is $9.19.

PINS closed the week at $14.94, down -$0.06 from my average selling price.

Put Insurance: *Opened SPY 4/3 238-234*

When the markets continued higher on Wednesday following Tuesday's epic 11% gain, the cost of put spreads once again lowered to a point where I felt picking up a little insurance was in order.

Once again, I picked a price-spread that I felt confident the market may pull back to in the week and half before expiration on Friday, April 3: I bought the SPY 4/3 238 Puts and sold the 234 Puts to reduce the cost of the trade.

I chose to risk 3.61% of my portfolio to potentially add +8.03% in YTD profits.

TRADE MAKEUP:

Buy SPY 4/3 238 Puts: -$8.07
Sell SPY 4/3 234 Puts: +$6.83
Total Cost: -$8.07 + $6.83 = $1.24 per Spread

BREAK-EVEN:

Higher Strike Price: $238
Cost: $1.24
Break-Even: $238 - $1.24 = $236.76

MAXIMUM PROFIT:

Lower Strike Price: $234
Break-Even: $236.76
Maximum Profit: $236.76 - $234 = $2.76 per spread
Maximum Gain: $2.76 / $1.24 = 222.58% (nearly 3-1/4 times the investment)

CURRENT STATUS:

Cost of Each Spread: $1.24
Current Value per Spread: $0.91
P/L %: -26.80%

Want Further Clarification?

As always, if you have questions about any of my positions or have positions of your own that you're curious about - feel free to leave a comment below!