November 26, 2021
The Week’s Biggest Winner & Loser
With the potential of a new lockdown on the horizon thanks to the Omicron (Octagon??) COVID variant, the stay-at-home plays reigned supreme on Friday. For this portfolio, that means Logitech (LOGI) – the maker of all things peripheral – which popped +3.94% for the week, enough to earn it the spot of the Week’s Biggest Loser.
All the air was let out of the tires of the entire Electric Vehicles (EV) space and newcomer, Rivian (RIVN), took the hit the absolute hardest. In fact, it’s likely this bugger would have been the Biggest Loser even without the new COVID variant, dropping another -12.81% this week and parking in the Week’s Biggest Loser spot.
Target Position Size
The Speculative Basket
The Speculative Basket is made up of nine (9) positions that cumulatively share two target allocations. While I have more faith in these positions than those in my Speculation in Play portfolio (why they’re in this portfolio), I don’t want a full allocation to any of them.
The current basket members are: Amazon (AMZN), Berkshire-Hathaway (BRK.B), Coinbase (COIN), Dutch Bros (BROS), IBM (IBM), Rivian (RIVN), Roblox (RBLX), Salesforce (CRM), Take Two Interactive (TTWO), and Twilio (TWLO).
Current Position Performance
1st Buy 9/6/2016 @ $15.77
Current Per-Share: (-$51.40)*
1st Buy 8/5/2016 @ $11.10
Current Per-Share: (-$137.65)*
1st Buy 3/12/2020 @ $111.30
Current Per-Share: (-$102.03)*
1st Buy 4/18/2013 @ $14.17
Current Per-Share: (-$34.00)*
1st Buy 11/11/2016 @ $24.20
Current Per-Share: $5.84
1st Buy 2/14/2012 @ $79.58
Current Per-Share: (-$212.89)*
1st Buy 2/14/2012 @ $26.71
Current Per-Share: (-$18.92)*
1st Buy 2/14/2012 @ $41.70
Current Per-Share: $21.80
IDEXX Labs (IDXX)
1st Buy 7/26/2017 @ $167.29
Current Per-Share: (-$85.40)*
Take Two (TTWO)
1st Buy 10/9/2018 @ $128.40
Current Per-Share: $39.56
1st Buy 6/11/2018 @ $134.05
Current Per-Share: $60.00
1st Buy 8/8/2019 @ $125.71
Current Per-Share: $84.67
JP Morgan (JPM)
1st Buy 10/26/2017 @ $102.30
Current Per-Share: $63.03
1st Buy 2/6/2018 @ $1,382.96
Current Per-Share: -($995.54)*
1st Buy 5/24/2018 @ $29.53
Current Per-Share: $6.59
1st Buy 1/31/2020 @ $113.60
Current Per-Share: $88.90
1st Buy 9/29/2021 @ $77.00
Current Per-Share: $75.20
1st Buy 5/13/2019 @ $53.18
Current Per-Share: $36.20
1st Buy 8/2/2019 @ $199.96
Current Per-Share: $182.87
Dutch Bros (BROS)
1st Buy 9/20/2021 @ $42.25
Current Per-Share: $40.00
1st Buy 11/6/2018 @ $120.87
Current Per-Share: $93.25
1st Buy 11/12/2021 @ $127.00
Current Per-Share: $127.00
1st Buy 4/14/2021 @ $412.47
Current Per-Share: $384.45
* Indicates a position where the capital investment was sold.
Profit % for * positions = Total Profit / Starting Capital Investment
** Indicates a position calculated based on initial investment due to extremely low per-share price (causes ridiculous and inaccurate “gains”)
A negative share price indicates the dollar amount of profit for each share currently held.
This Week’s Moves
Boeing (BA): Added to Position
On Friday, all travel stocks took a huge hit when the World Health Organization announced its investigation into a mutation of COVID-19, and Boeing (BA), already under selling pressure, crashed through $200 triggering a buy order that filled at $197.77.
The order replaced some of the shares I sold throughout 2018-2019 at an average price of $369.67, locking in a -46.50% discount and raising my per-share cost +22.81 from -$235.70 to -$212.89 (a negative per-share price indicates no capital in the position with each share adding $212.89 to the portfolio’s bottom line in addition to the current value of the share).
From here, my next buy target is $172.00 and my next sell target is $349.90, near the high of its last bull rally before the pandemic selloff and beyond the target position allocation size for the portfolio.
BA closed the week at $199.21, up +0.73% from where I added Friday.
Dow Chemical (DOW): Added to Position
With Dow Chemical (DOW) still under pressure from last week’s selling and its ex-dividend date coming up on November 29, I decided to add more to my position with a buy order that filled on Monday for $57.56.
The buy raised my per-share cost +0.84% from $35.90 to $36.20. At these levels, DOW yields nearly 5% annually, a crazy dividend that I simply can’t pass up on, and my new per-share cost is still a -31.92% discount from where I initially opened the position at $53.18 back on May 3, 2019.
From here, my next buy target is $54.35 and my next sell target is around DOW’s all-time high of $71.38.
DOW closed the week at $57.60, up +$0.04 from where I added Monday.
Nvidia (NVDA): Profit-Taking
Nvidia’s (NVDA) incredible run continued this week, triggering another sell order on Monday which filled at $343.03 as the position once again substantially outgrew the target allocation for my Investments in Play portfolio.
The sell order locked in +2,075.21% in gains on some of the original shares of the position that I purchased for $15.77 back on September 6, 2016 and lowered my per-share cost -$19.60 from -$31.80 to -$51.40 (a negative per-share cost indicates all capital has been removed in addition to $51.40 per share added to the portfolio’s bottom line in addition to each share’s current value).
From here, I’m going to continue to let NVDA run hot as it remains the biggest position in my portfolio with my next sell target at $379.95 determined using Inverse Fibonacci Retracement. My next buy target is $252.50, slightly less than a -30% selloff from NVDA’s new $346.47 all-time high (Nvidia regularly sells off more than -35% historically).
NVDA closed the week at $314.55, down -8.30% from where I took profits.
Skyworks Solutions (SWKS): Added to Position
Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) came under significant selling pressure when the semiconductor sector started pulling back on Monday. On Tuesday, SWKS triggered a buy order at $156.20 that raised my per-share cost +3.49% from $85.90 to $88.90, still a -21.74% reduction from my first buy at $113.60 back at the beginning of 2020 on January 31.
From here, my next buy target is $136.55, a past point of support, and my next sell target is $196.60, near the high from SWKS last run to the upside.
SWKS closed the week at $152.48, down -2.38% from where I added Tuesday.
Square (SQ): Added to Position
The bottom completely fell out in the financial technology (fintech) sector with Square (SQ) and PayPal (PYPL) taking it “squarely” on the chin. On Monday, SQ continued its selloff from last week, triggering a buy order at $210.65.
The buy locked in a -19.55% discount on shares I sold at $261.85 not to far back on July 23, 2021 and raised my per-share cost +$12.90 from -$150.55 to -$137.65 (each share adds $137.65 to the portfolio in addition to its current value).
From here, my next buy target is $194.40, above a past point of repeated support, and my next sell target is $268.70, slightly below SQ’s most recent high.
SQ closed the week at $212.08, up +0.68% from where I added Monday.
Want Further Clarification?
As always, if you have questions about any of my positions or have positions of your own that you’re curious about – feel free to leave a comment below!
See you next week!
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