Summing Up The Week

The stock market lurched through another whiplash week as the Iran War spilled into new territory, oil broke back above triple digits, and Washington delivered a dizzying mix of escalation and exit talk.

A Houthi missile strike on Israel signaled Tehran’s widening reach just as thousands of additional U.S. troops arrived in the region, underscoring that de‑escalation remains more wishful thinking than reality.

Oil’s surge past $100 slammed the brakes on an early‑week rally, only for stocks to roar back after President Trump unexpectedly floated a two‑to‑three‑week U.S. withdrawal from Iran.

Stronger‑than‑expected ADP payrolls added another twist, but Trump’s midweek address reignited fears of a deeper conflict, sending crude soaring and futures tumbling. In short, volatility, not direction, remains the market’s only constant.

I must confess that I completely forgot about the stock market being closed for the Good Friday holiday. It's so strange that this anachronistic, very religious holiday is still observed in the stock market, but it left me with the choice to either delay the Week in Review a day to cover the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) payroll report for March or to hold it for next week.

Rather than having the Week in Review come out the day after the last day for trading for the week, I'm pushing March's payroll report review to next week, however we'll still have plenty to talk about this week thanks to the ongoing Iran War causing havoc in market volatility!

Let's take a deeper dive into the news that moved markets this week...

Market News

Yemen Houthis attack Israel

On Saturday, the Houthis, a Tehran-backed terrorist cell in Yemen, launched a missile strike against Israel, the first time since the Iran War began, reported CNBC. "The Yemeni Armed Forces ... have carried out the first military operation using a barrage of ballistic missiles targeting sensitive Israeli military sites," said Houthi Spokesman Yahya Saree in a post on X.

With the Houthis likely being directed by Iran's Tehran administration, the escalation would indicate that Iran has no interest in a cease-fire agreement despite what the Trump administration has claimed.

Meanwhile, U.S. Central Command confirmed the arrival of the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, a military force including nearly 3,500 Sailors and Marines, arrived in the Middle East over the weekend as well. These additional U.S. troops provided a further indication that the war isn't being dialed down, but, instead, is preparing for another round of kinetic combat.

WTI crude oil settles above $100 for first time since 2022

On Monday, Bulls attempted to retake control of the market only to have the rally thwarted when Brent crude oil price head for a record monthly surge and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled above $100 for the first time since 2022, reported CNBC.

Despite President Donald Trump's threats to destroy oil wells, power plants, and Kharg Island unless the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, the Iranians maintained radio silence, not responding to Trump's requests.

Trump says U.S. will leave Iran in 2-3 weeks

On Tuesday evening, President Donald Trump said the United States troops would leave Iran within "two or three weeks" during a press gaggle at the White House, reported CNBC. Trump told the reporters, "we [will] leave because there's no reason for us to do this" likely referring to how the United States doesn't take deliveries of oil through the Strait of Hormuz and wouldn't need to defend the area.

Trump pointed out the damage caused to Iran by the war, "I mean, we’re totally unchecked. Everything’s been bombed out," he said.  "We’re hitting them very hard; last night, we knocked out tremendous amounts of missile-making facilities."

Markets had already huge before Tuesday's press conference with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finishing the day up a staggering +2.91% and +3.83%, respectively.

ADP shows private sector adding 62K jobs in March, better than expected

While we'll have to wait until next week's Week in Review to talk about Friday's jobs report thanks to the Good Friday holiday, private payroll processor ADP's March report showed an increase of 62,000 jobs in March, much better than the Dow Jones consensus for 39,000, reported CNBC.

Of course, loyal readers have noticed there seems to be an ongoing inverse correlation between ADP and the BLS payroll numbers; whenever ADP reports a miss, BLS reports an increase and vice versa. Next week, we'll discover whether or not this trend is ongoing when we get to review Friday's numbers.

Trump's Iran War speech raises fear of further escalation

On Wednesday evening, President Donald Trump spoke to the American public about the Iran War, and despite hopes Trump would provide options for de-escalation, instead he stoked fears of even more kinetic warfare, reported CNBC. Trump warned that the U.S. will "hit [Iran] extremely hard" over the coming weeks while also contradicting himself by stating the war wouldn't last long as discussions with Iran's leadership "are ongoing."

While the Trump administration may have intended to calm markets, Trump's address had the opposite effect, causing oil prices to soar 10% following his speech. On Thursday morning, the indexes, which had rallied on hopes of an end to the war a few days earlier, rolled over entirely with the S&P 500 down nearly -1.50% and the Nasdaq down almost -2.00% before the market opened Thursday.

Next Week's Gameplan

Next week promises to be a busy one as the market will react to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' March payroll report which comes out tomorrow (Good Friday). Additionally, we have plenty of other news events, too, including the durable-goods orders and consumer credit on Tuesday; the minutes of the Fed's March meeting on Wednesday; plus the key Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation gauge on Thursday capped off with the Consumer Price Index on Friday.

Pile into this that we still have the Iran War crisis and a full week of trading, and you'll just know we will have lots to discuss when we meet back here next Friday, friends!

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

Due to the Good Friday holiday, this week's Crypto Corner will be released only from my Get Irked substack. I apologize for any inconvenience and we will be back to our normal presentation next week when we have a full trading week.

Bitcoin Trade Update

Premium subscribers to Get Irked get access to all the moves I've made in my Bitcoin trade over the past week as well as my next thirty (30) ... yes, 30 ... buys in Bitcoin including price levels, quantities, and a full layout of my ongoing long-term trade in the world's biggest crypto.

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto...

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges - Gemini and Coinbase - in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin's price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.
• In May, Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $112,000.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -12% to a low of $98,247.01.
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +25% to a new all-time high of $123,231.07.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -14% to a low of $107,250.00.
• In October, Bitcoin rallied +18% to a new all-time high of $126,296.00.
• In February 2026, Bitcoin dropped -53% to a low of $60,001.00.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

The only reason I speculate in the cryptocurrency space is I truly believe Bitcoin isn’t headed to zero.

I am prepared for that possibility, however, by knowing I could potentially lose all of the capital I’ve allocated to this speculative investment. Professional advisers recommend speculating with no more than 5% of an investor’s overall assets. Personally, I’ve allocated less than that to speculating in crypto.

I feel that anyone who doesn’t fully believe in the long-term viability of cryptocurrency would be better served not speculating in the space.

On a good day, this asset class isn’t suitable for those with weak stomachs. On volatile days, the sector can induce nausea in the most iron-willed speculator. If a speculator isn’t confident in the space, the moves will cause mistakes to be made.

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.

Suicide Hotline - You Are Not Alone

Studies show that economic recessions cause an increase in suicide, especially when combined with thoughts of loneliness and anxiety.

If you or someone you know are having thoughts of suicide or self-harm, please contact the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline by visiting www.suicidepreventionlifeline.org or calling 1-800-273-TALK.

The hotline is open 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.