Summing Up The Week

Stocks lurched through another chaotic week as the White House and Tehran delivered dueling narratives about whether peace talks are even happening, let alone progressing.

President Trump opened the week insisting the U.S. was “very intent on making a deal,” only to follow up days later with fresh threats that Iran “better get serious soon,” while Iranian state media repeatedly denied that negotiations were underway at all.

The result was a whipsaw in sentiment: markets surged on Monday’s fleeting hopes for a truce, then reversed sharply as mixed messages, rising tensions, and a fresh supply shock sent Brent crude above $111 after Chinese vessels were turned away from the Strait of Hormuz.

Let's take a deeper dive into the news that moved markets this week...

Market News

Trump: "we are very intent on making a deal" with Iran

On Monday, after making claims the U.S. would be escalating the war with Iran by bombing the countries power infrastructure, President Donald Trump said the U.S. is "very intent on making a deal," during an interview with CNBC.

In 2025, a Financial Times reporter coined the acronym "TACO" for "Trump Always Chickens Out" referring to Trump's strategy of making aggressive threats only to backtrack completely within a few days. This feels like one of those times after advisers likely warned Trump that escalating or even prolonging the hostilities in the Middle East could have disastrous effects on the global economy, and, maybe more importantly for Trump, the U.S. stock market which the President considers his "report card."

However, after citing positive talks with Iran over the weekend, Trump's claims were refuted by the war-torn country, "There is [sic] been no negotiation and there is no negotiation, and with this kind of psychological warfare, neither the Strait of Hormuz will return to its pre-war conditions nor will there be peace in the energy markets," Iran reported in state media.

Despite the lack of transparency to what reports are true and which are false, stocks rallied sharply on hopes on Monday that a truce could be reached sooner rather than later. Later in the week, the confusion over the negotiations would lead to increased volatility in both directions on a daily basis.

Trump warns Iranians "better get serious soon"

On Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump told the Iranians they need to "get serious soon" about negotiating a cease-fire or all-out peace deal with the United States or they would face consequences, reported CNBC. 

The President posted on TruthSocial, "They better get serious soon, before it is too late, because once that happens, there is NO TURNING BACK, and it won’t be pretty!" Trump went on to describe the Iranian's negotiators as "very different" and "strange" making claims that they had been "begging" to make a deal to end the war. 

Meanwhile, the Iranian media has repeatedly reported that there have been no talks and that the Trump administration has been fabricating claims of ongoing negotiations, although the foreign minister did say they were reviewing the peace plan sent by the U.S. on Wednesday.

The ongoing confusion between what's actually going on between the United States and Iran's peace talks led to significant volatility throughout all the markets but the energy sector, in particular, as investors and traders have no idea what the next move might be; will the U.S. negotiate peace and reopen the Strait of Hormuz or will the supply shock continue to remain an ongoing concern?

Oil over $111 as Chinese ships turned away from Strait of Hormuz

On Friday, the price of Brent crude oil (the international standard for oil prices) rose to more than $111 when news broke that two large Chinese container vessels were turned away after trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, reported CNBC.

Despite the Trump administration's repeated claims that cease-fire negotiations are "going very well," the actions taken by the Iranian government indicate otherwise. Trump said in a social media post on Thursday that talks with Iran were "going very well” despite “erroneous statements to the contrary by the Fake News Media, and others.”

With oil reaching higher levels rather than reversing, the stock market continued its selloff on Friday which became the definitive direction for the week. Until and unless the U.S. government can make progress toward peace with Iran, we should expect higher oil prices and, thus lower equity prices, into the coming days and weeks until we see some sort of definitive resolution.

Next Week's Gameplan

With the Iran War still showing no signs of ending, next week will add more fuel to the volatility fire with some key datapoints. On Tuesday, we will see the Consumer Confidence survey results for March followed by PMI & ISM manufacturing numbers on Wednesday. The key data will come on Friday when the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the U.S. payroll data for March where expectations are for a loss of 92,000 jobs in the month.

As if all that wasn't crazy enough, I still have earnings reports to review. On Monday, Virgin Galactic (SPCE) reports after the market closes followed by Nike (NKE) reporting after the market close on Tuesday.

The recipe for ongoing volatility remains what the market is cooking up so there will be plenty to talk about when we meet back here next Friday, friends!

Check out Get Irked Premium on Substack!

After providing FREE content since 2018, the time constraints of producing Investments in Play, Speculation in Play, the Pandemic Portfolio, and Stock Shopping List have become too much to continue doing for free.

On Substack, you can subscribe for FREE to have the Week in Review and Crypto Corner, now separate newsletters, sent to your email inbox at no cost. The portfolio updates and Stock Shopping List are now part of a premium subscription plan.

I hope you will join me on Substack as I continue on this exciting journey!

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ONGOING SUPPORT!

Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

If there’s one thing Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency sector is really good at, it’s confounding both the Bulls and the Bears, and that’s exactly what Bitcoin has been doing over the past week.

After getting the Bulls super-excited by breaking through the $76K barrier, Bitcoin broke through last week’s low at $68,772.78, making a lower weekly-low at $67,332.05 on Sunday. It also was unable to come even closer to making a higher weekly-high, finding resistance at $72,030.29 on Wednesday before rolling back over once again before breaking through its brand-new low on Thursday.

Bitcoin has only barely found support at $66,210.00, a new weekly-low above a very key level of support which is likely to be tested… and fail. This price action is decidedly Bearish and points to the fact that Bitcoin remains in an incredibly powerful downtrend which has been in place since last October.

The Bullish Case

Bulls argue that the extra clarity on the Clarity Act (sorry, I had to) is Bullish for Bitcoin and that the current price action is simply an ongoing consolidation before the buyers step in and send Bitcoin exploding to the upside.

Bulls who believe the Clarity Act is actually bullish for anything other than stablecoins clearly haven’t performed a deep reading of what’s in the bill. The Clarity Act is specifically targeting regulation to enable the U.S. Government to create a dedicated USD Stablecoin and little else.

Even still, the permabulls are out in force on X and elsewhere, claiming that Bitcoin will never break below $60K again and that all investors should go all-in right here lest they miss the boat. Naturally, the Bears disagree.

The Bearish Case

Bears don’t need to argue for much here - the price action says it all; Bitcoin is in a long-term downtrend and the technical damage continues to prevent the crypto from breaking out to the upside. Bears still argue that there hasn’t been enough in this Crypto Winter and it’s highly unlikely that $60K is the floor as it would represent a historically shallow Crypto Winter low whose statistical odds are slim to none of happening.

In short, Bitcoin hasn’t sold off remotely enough. Even taking the shallower bottoms of each Crypto Winter, optimistic price targets show Bitcoin breaking below $50K unless something truly unprecedented happens.

Bitcoin Trade Update

Premium subscribers to Get Irked get access to all the moves I've made in my Bitcoin trade over the past week as well as my next thirty (30) ... yes, 30 ... buys in Bitcoin including price levels, quantities, and a full layout of my ongoing long-term trade in the world's biggest crypto.

If you aren't already, subscribe to my Substack today!

Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto...

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges - Gemini and Coinbase - in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin's price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.
• In May, Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $112,000.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -12% to a low of $98,247.01.
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +25% to a new all-time high of $123,231.07.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -14% to a low of $107,250.00.
• In October, Bitcoin rallied +18% to a new all-time high of $126,296.00.
• In February 2026, Bitcoin dropped -53% to a low of $60,001.00.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

The only reason I speculate in the cryptocurrency space is I truly believe Bitcoin isn’t headed to zero.

I am prepared for that possibility, however, by knowing I could potentially lose all of the capital I’ve allocated to this speculative investment. Professional advisers recommend speculating with no more than 5% of an investor’s overall assets. Personally, I’ve allocated less than that to speculating in crypto.

I feel that anyone who doesn’t fully believe in the long-term viability of cryptocurrency would be better served not speculating in the space.

On a good day, this asset class isn’t suitable for those with weak stomachs. On volatile days, the sector can induce nausea in the most iron-willed speculator. If a speculator isn’t confident in the space, the moves will cause mistakes to be made.

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.

Suicide Hotline - You Are Not Alone

Studies show that economic recessions cause an increase in suicide, especially when combined with thoughts of loneliness and anxiety.

If you or someone you know are having thoughts of suicide or self-harm, please contact the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline by visiting www.suicidepreventionlifeline.org or calling 1-800-273-TALK.

The hotline is open 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.