Summing Up The Week

This week delivered another masterclass in market whiplash as geopolitical chaos, inflation pressures, and weakening economic data collided to send asset prices lurching in every direction.

Oil briefly spiked to nearly $120 before collapsing almost 30% intraday after President Donald Trump downplayed the duration of the Iran war, flipping sentiment and yanking equities from deep red to solid green early in the week. Meanwhile, CPI and PCE data reminded investors that inflation remains stubborn, the Fed has no room to cut, and GDP growth is slipping toward stall speed.

Add in Iran’s vow to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed and the result was a market that punished anyone reacting emotionally at the open and rewarded those who stuck to disciplined rules. If there was ever a week proving why you only BUY on red days and SELL on green ones, this was it.

Let's take a deeper dive into the news that moved markets...

Market News

Oil hits $119.48 before Trump says "war is very complete"

On Monday, the price of a barrel of oil skyrocketed to $119.48 trading on fears the war in Iran would last longer than anyone expected until President Donald Trump told a CBS News reporter the war could be over soon midday, reported CNBC. "I think the war is very complete, pretty much," Trump said, according to Weijia Jiang, CBS’s Senior White House Correspondent.

Trump went on to comment about the lack of Iranian defenses remaining, "Their missiles are down to a scatter. Their drones are being blown up all over the place, including their manufacturing of drones," he told CBS. "If you look, they have nothing left. There’s nothing left in a military sense."

From its high to the close, the price of a barrel collapsed nearly -30%, further earmarking the volatility Trump's flip-flopping has on markets. Likewise, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq - both of which opened the day down nearly -2% - reversed to close the day up +0.83% and +1.38%, respectively.

This kind of wild volatility reiterates the importance of one of my rules: Only BUY on RED days and only SELL on GREEN days. Anyone who panic-sold at the open on fears the war would cause a stock market crash had their face ripped off by the day's end, now left to either wait for a pullback or forced to lock in those losses by replacing what they sold at much higher prices.

It's critical to remember that there are two actions any investor can take on a given day, but those actions aren't BUY and SELL. On green days, I can SELL or HOLD. On red days, I can BUY or HOLD.

The easy rule to remember is this: If you don't know what to do, do nothing. Alternatively, don't just stand there, do nothing!

Consumer prices rose 2.4% annually in February

On Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that February's prices rose 2.4% year-over-year and 0.3% in the month, in-line with estimates, reported CNBC. However, while in a vacuum the data is promising, the CPI doesn't reflect the war in the Middle East which started after the data was taken.

When taking the Iran War into account, experts are pessimistic. "CPI inflation for February was along expectations but this is the calm before the storm that will show up due to surging gasoline prices in March," said Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist for the Carson Group. "Still, this report does show that the Fed has an inflation problem even if you set aside the energy shock. Tariff-impacts are still hitting core goods inflation, while services inflation outside housing remains hot."

To make matters worse, the strong labor market provides the Federal Reserve no cover to cut interest rates anytime soon, as their dual-mandate requires them to keep inflation in-line and to ensure a strong job market. In other words, inflation will require the Fed to maintain (or even possibly increase) the benchmark interest rate. 

Iran's new leader vows Strait of Hormuz must remain closed

On Thursday, Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said the country would use the Strait of Hormuz as a "tool to pressure the enemy," keeping it closed to all tanker traffic, reported CNBC. Khamenei also said all U.S. military bases in the Middle East should close immediately and "those bases will be attacked," in televised comments translated by Reuters.

Khamenei was injured in the compound where during the air strikes which killed his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as well as several other immediate family members. "Iran will not refrain from avenging the blood of its martyrs," he said, calling for unity among the Iranian people.

Following attacks on three additional tankers in the Persian Gulf, oil prices continued to rise and fertilizer stocks including Nutrien (NTR), one of my holdings in my Pandemic Portfolio, skyrocketed as a supplies will be severely limited for some time. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both opened down more than -1% on Thursday on the back of the heightened ongoing tensions in the Middle East.

Q4 GDP revised down to 0.7%, inflation at 3.1%

On Friday, the Commerce Department reported that the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2025-Q4 was revised down to an annual rate of just 0.7% while the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index came in at 0.3% for February and 3.1% annually versus estimates for 0.3% and 2.9%, respectively, reported CNBC.

The initial estimate for GDP had been 1.4% - which, in itself, was a decrease from the Dow Jones estimates for 1.5% - however 0.7% at quite literally half that is simply a poor result. The weakening numbers from GDP shows an economy that's not faring so well (typically, 2% growth is considered a base rate for an economy that's healthy) and the higher-than-expected annual inflation from the PCE isn't great news, either.

Given that the PCE is the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation, an increasing figure doesn't strengthen the case that the Fed will cut interest rates when it meets next week to make the decision. The market continued making its erratic moves, though, as stocks actually rallied substantially at the open on Friday despite the negative datapoints and ongoing concerns about Iran.

Next Week's Gameplan

Next week brings quite a bit of activity despite most of the outcomes being more or less easy to estimate. On Wednesday, we get the Producer Price Index (PPI) which will likely come in-line with this week's CPI; once again not including the potential inflationary effects of the Iran War.

Also on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will meet to decide what to do about the benchmark index rate. Given that employment is strong enough and there are potential dramatic inflationary effects coming into the system, it is all but certain that the Fed will keep the interest rate where it is.

Believe it or not, earnings season is still not done for me as I continue to have a few stragglers yet to report. Next week, it's GrowGeneration (GRWG) from my Speculation in Play portfolio which will report after the market closes on Thursday.

While the expected data might seem dry, the unknown unknowns thanks to geopolitical concerns means we really have no idea what to expect in terms of market moves, so join me back here next Friday so we can go over all the action together, friends!

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

Bitcoin has remained surprisingly stable throughout the volatility in the markets since the start of the Iran War. In fact, Bitcoin flipped the script on Friday right before writing when it broke out to test the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). While finding resistance at the $73,373.00 mark, not making a higher weekly-high, wasn’t supremely bullish, the fact that Bitcoin did find support at a much higher-low, not selling off below $65,618.51 when it pulled back on Sunday, is constructive for the cryptocurrency.

That being said, there’s still much work left to be done before the downtrend is flipped into a Bullish narrative.

The Bullish Case

Bulls are holding on to the lack of the volatility in Bitcoin over the past week as a reason to be constructive on the crypto, and maybe they’re right. In a week of extreme volatility across markets, Bitcoin has been uncharacteristically quiet. These Bulls believe the low is very much in for this Crypto Winter and that it’s simply a matter of time of consolidation before Bitcoin breaks out from these levels.

The Bearish Case

In answer to the Bulls, Bears point to past Crypto Winters where Bitcoin notoriously becomes less and less volatile, consolidating for days, weeks, and even months, before, suddenly, giving up support and crashing.

The Bear narrative strikes particularly close to home for me as it’s incredibly reminiscent of 2018, my first Crypto Winter experience: Bitcoin traded between $5890 and $6800 for more than three months from August through November before support gave way painfully. Bitcoin didn’t bottom until nearly -50% lower in the $3120s that December.

I always hope for upside and plan for downside. I hope that Bitcoin’s done selling off, but a -50% drop from the current low puts us right at $30,000, a -76.25% selloff from the current all-time high which would also be right in-line with the pullbacks Bitcoin has made from ATHs in past Crypto Winters.

Bitcoin Trade Update

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto...

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges - Gemini and Coinbase - in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin's price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.
• In May, Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $112,000.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -12% to a low of $98,247.01.
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +25% to a new all-time high of $123,231.07.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -14% to a low of $107,250.00.
• In October, Bitcoin rallied +18% to a new all-time high of $126,296.00.
• In February 2026, Bitcoin dropped -53% to a low of $60,001.00.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

The only reason I speculate in the cryptocurrency space is I truly believe Bitcoin isn’t headed to zero.

I am prepared for that possibility, however, by knowing I could potentially lose all of the capital I’ve allocated to this speculative investment. Professional advisers recommend speculating with no more than 5% of an investor’s overall assets. Personally, I’ve allocated less than that to speculating in crypto.

I feel that anyone who doesn’t fully believe in the long-term viability of cryptocurrency would be better served not speculating in the space.

On a good day, this asset class isn’t suitable for those with weak stomachs. On volatile days, the sector can induce nausea in the most iron-willed speculator. If a speculator isn’t confident in the space, the moves will cause mistakes to be made.

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.

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Studies show that economic recessions cause an increase in suicide, especially when combined with thoughts of loneliness and anxiety.

If you or someone you know are having thoughts of suicide or self-harm, please contact the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline by visiting www.suicidepreventionlifeline.org or calling 1-800-273-TALK.

The hotline is open 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.