Summing Up The Week

The past week featured a mix of resilience and volatility as major indices navigated a flurry of earnings reports, geopolitical headlines, and speculation around President Donald Trump’s nomination for the next Federal Reserve Chair.

The S&P 500 traded near record territory but dipped modestly amid pressure from tech sector weakness. The tech-heavy Nasdaq faced the most pronounced pullback driven by sharp drops in big-cap names like Microsoft (MSFT) following softer cloud growth signals.

Overall, markets showed broadening participation beyond mega-cap tech, with investors digesting mixed earnings, steady economic data, and anticipation for the Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, setting the stage for continued rotation and cautious optimism as we head into February.

Let’s take a deeper dive into the news that moved markets this week…

Market News

Trump to impose 100% tariff on Canada if China deal goes through

On Saturday, President Donald Trump announced he would impose 100% tariffs on all Canadian imports if the country went through with the “strategic partnership” with China that Canada announced earlier in the week, reported CNBC.

Trump has shown great animosity toward Canada ever since Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a preliminary deal with China and gave a speech denouncing the U.S.’s bullying tactics at the World Economic Forum. “If Governor [sic] Carney thinks he is going to make Canada a ‘Drop Off Port’ for China to send goods and products into the United States, he is sorely mistaken,” Trump stated in a post on TruthSocial. “If Canada makes a deal with China, it will immediately be hit with a 100% Tariff against all Canadian goods and products coming into the U.S.A.”

Canada not pursuing free trade deal with China, says PM Carney

On Sunday, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada has “no intention” of making a free trade deal with China, reported CNBC. Carney’s remarks followed Trump’s threats of a 100% tariff on all Canadian goods should the country make a free trade deal with the Chinese.

Carney clarified that the deal in question simply revalues tariffs on certain goods between Canada and China, “What we have done with China is to rectify some issues that have developed in the last couple of years.” Carney added that the deal was “entirely consistent with CUSMA.”

FOMC keeps rates flat as economy is on “firm footing”

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve chose to keep the overnight lending rate flat at 3.5% to 3.75% with Fed Chair Jerome Powell saying the economy is on a “firm footing” and doesn’t need a looser rate, reported CNBC. While some wilder market pundits believed the Fed would cut again, the news was unsurprising to the majority as the S&P 500 finished flat on the day.

Powell pointed to the data for confirming the Fed’s view that the current rate isn’t a problem for the economy, “Many of my colleagues think it’s hard to look at the incoming data and say that policy is significantly restrictive at this time,” he said during his press conference.

Unrelated to the market, Powell made a nice defense of why central banks need to be independent, “The point of independence is not to protect policymakers or anything like that. It just is that every advanced economy, democracy in the world has come around to this common practice. It’s just an institutional arrangement that has served the people well, and that is to have a separation between — to not have direct elected official control over the setting of monetary policy.”

Powell went on to express the dangers of a government-controlled Fed, “The reason is that monetary policy can be used, you know, through an election cycle to affect the economy in a way that will be politically worthwhile,” he said. “If you lose that, it’s going to be hard to retain it, and we haven’t lost it. I don’t believe we will … it’s enabled central banks generally not to be perfect, but to serve the public well.”

Trump nominates Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair

On Friday, President Donald Trump finally announced his candidate to replace Jerome Powell as Chairman of the Federal Reserve – Kevin Warsh, reported CNBC. This decision has been a long-time coming (mostly due to Trump’s hemming and hawing over who to pick), however the markets appeared relieved following Warsh’s announcement as Warsh’s Wall Street background and past Fed experience might suggest he won’t simply always do what Trump asks.

Even with that perceived credibility, pundits believe Warsh will continue to cut rates when he takes over the Fed. “He has the respect and credibility of the financial markets,” said David Bahnsen, Chief Investment Officer of The Bahnsen Group, on CNBC’s Squawk Box. “There was no person who was going to get this job who wasn’t going to be cutting rates in the short term. However, I believe longer term he will be a credible candidate.”

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures markets were both in the midst of dramatic selloff prior to the announcement with the news not extinguishing the Bearish price action, but stemming the tide a bit, at least.

December Producer Prices hotter than expected

On Friday, the delayed Producer Price Index (PPI) for December came in hotter with +0.5% increase month-over-month against expectations for +0.2%, reported Seeking Alpha. According to the report, wholesale inflation has increased by a 3.0% annual basis. 

While the PPI served to reinforce the Fed’s decision to keep interest rates steady when they met early in the week, the markets took the numbers in stride, likely helped by Trump’s announcement of Kevin Warsh for Chair of the Federal Reserve as opposed to a dedicated “yes-man” who would simply approve every one of the President’s requests.

Next Week’s Gameplan

After all the excitement of last week, you might think things would slow down next week but this absolutely will not be the case as we look toward the “all-important” jobs report which will be released next Friday (along with a series of smaller datapoints throughout the week like auto sales on Monday and ADP’s employment report on Wednesday).

Additionally, we also have another round of earnings, of course. Here’s what I’ll be watching from my own holdings:

• Monday: Disney (DIS) and IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX) report Before Market Open (BMO). Palantir (PLTR) reports After Market Close (AMC).
• Tuesday: Pepsico (PEP) reports BMO. AMD (AMD), Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), and Take Two Interactive (TTWO) report AMC.
• Wednesday: CME Group (CME) reports BMO. Arm Holdings (ARM), Crown Castle (CCI), and Alphabet/Google (GOOGL) report AMC.
• Thursday: Barrick Gold (B) and Roblox (RBLX) report BMO. Amazon (AMZN) and Digital Realty Trust (DLR) report AMC.
• Friday: Canopy Growth Corporation (CGC) reports BMO.

So, put on your big kid pants, my friends, because next week shows no sign of calming down. No worries, though, we can always meet back here on Friday to go over all the wild price action we might see!

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

Bitcoin completely imploded this week, destroying any constructive momentum the Bulls had been desperately building for weeks now. Bitcoin rallied to an anemic weekly high at $91,147.01 last Friday after I sent out the Crypto Corner, and that was the last we’d see of anything Bullish. On Thursday, Bitcoin crashed through last week’s low at $87,156.00 as well as support at $86,350.00; $84,400.00, and $83,800.00.

The result?

Bitcoin is very much back in the throes of a devilish Bear market with the only remaining support at $80,524.65; it’s all that stands between Bulls and utter freefall to lows not seen since the Tariff Tantrum last April the current low of the cycle.

The Bullish Case

Bulls are gob-smacked after this week definitively showed how not in control they are as Bitcoin broke down. A few lone perma-Bulls are desperately arguing that it’s Bullish that Bitcoin hasn’t broken below $80,524.65, but that is small solace given how badly things will go if that support doesn’t hold.

I see a significant amount of Bullish chatter on X saying that the washout on Thursday indicates the bottom. The current crash is only the 3rd worst since 2018. Personally, I’m skeptical we’re done selling off; there’s likely more to go.

The Bearish Case

Bears rejoiced the utter destruction of a constructive Bull channel which had been building since December 18. The sheer power of the Bears slicing through key support levels established weeks ago demonstrate exactly how Bearish this current cycle truly will continue to be.

If Bitcoin breaks through the cycle low, we’re looking at key past support at $78,167.81 and $74,420.69, but, as the Key Selloff Targets show below, there are plenty of “run-of-the-mill” Crypto Winter targets which could see Bitcoin down at $59K, $47K, $28K, $19K and lower!

Bitcoin Trade Update

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto…

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges – Gemini and Coinbase – in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin’s price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.
• In May, Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $112,000.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -12% to a low of $98,247.01.
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +25% to a new all-time high of $123,231.07.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -14% to a low of $107,250.00.
• In October, Bitcoin rallied +18% to a new all-time high of $126,296.00.
• In November, Bitcoin dropped -36% to a low of $80,524.65.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.