Summing Up The Week

After a few sleepy days of trading leading up to the main event of the Federal Reserve meeting, the market seemed to react with great excitement to the much-foreseen rate cut on Wednesday with positive market action leading through Thursday’s trading, too. 

However, Friday marked a significant rotation as stocks sold off on no real news. Are investors taking gains or harvesting losses ahead of the year or could the market action signify something more ominous afoot?

Let’s take a deeper dive into the news that moved the markets this week…

Market News

Fed cuts interest rate, starts stealth easing

The big non-news news event happened on Wednesday when the Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate 0.25% down to 3.5%-3.7%, however the divided Fed was a surprise as Chair Jerome Powell called the cut a “close call,” reported CNBC. The vote did end up at 9-3 in favor of the cut so how “close” that really is could be up for debate, but the Chair’s point was clear: the FOMC is now mixed between those favoring cuts and those favoring no decrease.

“I could make a case for either side,” said Powell at the press conference. “Now, we wait and see how the economy evolves.” Powell also went on to indicate that the FOMC would only be considering a single cut in 2026.

Despite the somewhat hawkish commentary, the markets roared to life after a sleepy Monday and Tuesday with the S&P 500 finishing the day +0.67% and the Nasdaq up +0.33%, likely due to the fact that Powell’s tenure as Fed Chair ends in May and President Donald Trump will likely replace Powell with a dovish Chair who will seek far more than single rate cut in 2026.

Costco earnings reveal possible slowdown in spending

Costco (COST) reported a blowout quarter on Thursday night after the bell, however there were signs of a potential slowdown. Comparative sales growth of 6.4% showed deceleration from the fiscal year’s full-rate of 7.6% and even softened slightly from October’s 6.8%.

The market doesn’t take Costco’s earnings to heart as seriously as other indicators, however if the big-box retailer’s seeing a slowing consumer, it could indicate trouble ahead for the U.S. economy.

Next Week’s Gameplan

With the government back open, the deluge of data really starts kicking in next week:

• On Monday, we get the Empire State manufacturing survey and home builder confidence index.
• On Tuesday, we get the U.S. employment rate, retail sales, and the S&P flash U.S. services and manufacturing PMIs.
• On Thursday, we get initial jobless claims, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing survey.
• On Friday, we get existing home sales and consumer sentiment numbers.

The key one to watch will be Thursday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) which will give a much-needed read on inflation. While expectations are for an increase of 0.3% in November and an annual rate of 3.0%, if CPI comes in hot, that could send markets for a flip after the Fed cut rates this week.

And, believe it or not, I have one last straggler I’m watching for earnings season – Nike (NKE) which reports after the bell on Thursday. For some reason, Nike always reports at the tail-end of earnings season. In fact, NKE reports so late that the next earnings season starts just a few short weeks after Nike reports… crazy!

So, next week promises to be another busy one, and given the oddly volatile intraday price action we’ve been seeing, it could be exciting, too, when we come back here to discuss it, friends! 

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

After last week’s promising action, Bitcoin made a higher weekly-low on Sunday at $87,733.18 before going on to make a slightly higher weekly-high at $94,640.66 on Tuesday before rolling over once more.

While a series of higher-lows and higher-highs is a Bullish sign during Bull trends, analysts I respect, like Caleb Franzen (@CalebFranzen), point out the key element of that narrative is that the asset needs to be in a Bull trend, which Bitcoin is not. In a Bear Market, a series of higher-lows and higher-highs can simply be a Bear Flag – a pattern which could indicate a breakdown in the asset to new lows.

Only time will tell which way Bitcoin wants to head from here, but with the big orange crypto well below its 200-Day Exponential Moving Average (in Black) along with many other key resistance points, it’s not looking all that great right now.

The Bullish Case

Bulls are clinging to the hope that the series of higher-lows and higher-highs indicates a reversal in the moderate-term narrative. These Bulls – the same ones who argued that lower-lows and lower-highs were Bullish in a Bull trend arguing that such price action is a Bull Flag in a Bull Market- are being hypocritical now; if a Bull Flag is a reliable pattern in a Bull Market, then its reverse – a Bear Flag – clearly a reliable pattern in a Bear Market.

The Bearish Case

Bears continue to maintain the narrative. Even when Bitcoin makes a higher-high as it did over the past week, the price action is decidedly anemic on the breakout, barely breaking through the prior high before sellers jump in to lock in gains/losses. Bears argue the current price action is only serving to cool off oversold conditions before Bitcoin rolls over once more and heads to lower-lows.

Bitcoin Trade Update

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto…

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges – Gemini and Coinbase – in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin’s price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.
• In May, Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $112,000.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -12% to a low of $98,247.01.
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +25% to a new all-time high of $123,231.07.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -14% to a low of $107,250.00.
• In October, Bitcoin rallied +18% to a new all-time high of $126,296.00.
• In November, Bitcoin dropped -36% to a low of $80,524.65.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.