Summing Up The Week

I still chuckle to myself when I think of all the “analysts” who were claiming volatility would be dead after President Donald Trump was re-elected. Many were looking at the average volatility of Trump’s first term and, on average, the volatility appears low in hindsight.

However, for those of us who were trading and investing in 2018, particularly late 2018, we remember a new China tweet sending stocks roaring or roiling on a daily – near hourly – basis. When Trump wasn’t attacking China, he was going after the Federal Reserve where newly-appointed (by Trump, in fact) Chairman Jerome Powell was defiantly raising rates in lock-step without taking the state of the economy into consideration. As a result, the stock market collapsed nearly -20% from October to Christmas Eve in 2018, the bloodiest Christmas Eve in the history of the markets.

Now, we have analysts claiming that between the Federal Government Shutdown, Trump’s trade war with China, and new concerns about bad loans in the banking sector, we’re set up to have a “perfect storm” that could bring us another stock crash between now and the end of 2025.

Is it possible? Sure, anything is possible. However, my role as an investor is to plan for potential outcomes, not predict them. For me, I’ve been spending time working on my buying plans and identifying potential levels of support where I will add to my all of my investments.

Remember: the time to trim is at all-time highs, not when stocks are selling off. Buy on red days and sell on green days.

With that, let’s take a dive into the news that moved markets this week…

Market News

The “Taco Trade” returns as Trump flip-flops on China

On Sunday, President Trump capitulated about his stance on China, claiming his Friday posts on TruthSocial were him having “a bad moment” which caused stocks to rally on Monday, reported CNBC. Several months ago, a columnist for the Financial Times called this sort of flip-flopping the “TACO Trade,” an acronym meaning “Trump Always Chickens Out.”

In Trump’s full TruthSocial post on Sunday he wrote, “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment. He doesn’t want Depression for his country, and neither do I. The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it.”

Stocks and Bitcoin far from recovered their Friday losses, but the rally brought assets quite a bit off their lows. Gold and silver – which rallied during Friday’s bloodbath – continued to rally to new all-time highs Monday due to the ongoing uncertainty.

Concerns about private credit loans continue to grow

On Thursday, regional banks and the investment bank Jefferies sold off in a big way as a result of recent private credit loan failures of two companies – First Brands and Tricolor Holdings, reported CNBC.

These concerns were brought to light during the earnings reports of the major moneysaver banks earlier this week, specifically when Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan (JPM), commented that there are likely more “cockroaches” out there referring to these private loan failures.

Dimon’s comments prompted one of JPMorgan’s own analysts, Anthony Elian, to write a note to clients on Thursday, “While  we  are  questioning  why  all  of  these  credit  ‘one offs’  are  seemingly occurring in a short period of time, the reality is that even though these exposures may be ‘well-contained’ and have a ‘limited financial impact,’ this is an industry where investors — especially those that are new to this sector — tend to ‘sell first and ask questions later,’ especially when it comes to elevated credit concerns.”

As a result, the indexes sold off a bit on Thursday with the S&P 500 finishing the day down -0.63% and the Nasdaq down -0.47%. Additionally, some pundits are concerned that the combination of the Federal Government Shutdown, tariff concerns with China, and now private credit worries could create a “perfect storm” for a substantial correction – or even a crash – in the equity markets.

Next Week’s Gameplan

With the Federal Government still shut down, the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) didn’t happen this week with the CPI, at least, being postponed to next Friday (government-depending, of course). What we should get next Friday is S&P’s services and manufacturing PMI along with the final consumer sentiment reading.

Additionally, we’ve got earnings season! Here’s what I’m watching from my holdings:

• Wednesday: CME Group (CME) reports Before Market Open (BMO). IBM (IBM) and Tesla (TSLA) report After Market Close (AMC).
• Thursday: Dow Chemical (DOW) and Union Pacific report earnings BMO. Digital Realty Trust (DLR), Iridium Communications (IRDM), and Newmont Mining (NEM) report AMC.

While none of those is really that significant on its own, I’m interested to see what DOW and UNP have to say as both can provide insights into the state of industrial economy in the U.S.

Join me here back Friday as we go over all the market-moving news, friends! 

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

Is $26K Bitcoin Really on the Table? A Bear’s Fantasy or a Bull’s Nightmare

What a difference a week makes.

Just last week, Bulls were rejoicing about Bitcoin achieving new all-time highs with calls for $130K-$150K in just weeks. However, in just a few short days after making a new all-time high Bitcoin imploded after President Trump’s announcement of additional 100% tariffs on all Chinese imports last Friday, collapsing through all support – including the -13.88% pullback low from the prior all-time high. Bitcoin didn’t make a new bottom until $107,000.00 on Coinbase last Friday (but it was $105,000.00 on other exchanges like Gemini).

Bitcoin tried to bounce off its low but was only able to make a weekly-high at $116,077.51 on Monday, significantly off last week’s all-time high at $126,296.00 and throwing Bitcoin into a series of lower-highs and lower-lows on the Daily timeframe.

Early Friday morning (just a few hours before this update goes to “press”), another Bearish downdraft sent Bitcoin through the support it made last Friday, not finding new support until $103,516.75 on Coinbase ($103,000.00 even on Gemini).

The Bullish Case

Bulls’ dreams have been positively dashed and incinerated following the price action in Bitcoin positively collapsing. Last week’s all-time high appears to be what’s called a “false high,” a new all-time high that is, indeed, higher than the prior, however not significant enough to constitute a true start of a Bull Market (the current ATH is only +1.42% higher than the prior).

As a result, Bulls have gone back to the drawing board, grasping at any signs of bullishness or potential signs of support to rationalize their hopes for a reversal in Bitcoin’s price action. For the moment, I must side with the Bears, unfortunately.

The Bearish Case

The technical damage caused by Trump’s tariff tweets has flipped the momentum decidedly Bearish. Now that the previous low has been broken, the Bears are arguing that even lower-lows are in store as investor sentiment has been shaken. Some believe Bitcoin will see sub-$100,000 before the end of October with others predicting even lower levels from there with one notorious permabear making calls for $26K on X.

Bitcoin Trade Update

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto…

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges – Gemini and Coinbase – in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin’s price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.
• In May, Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $112,000.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -12% to a low of $98,247.01.
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +25% to a new all-time high of $123,231.07.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -14% to a low of $107,250.00.
• In October, Bitcoin rallied +18% to a new all-time high of $126,296.00.
• Later in October, Bitcoin dropped -18% to a low of $103,000.00

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.