Summing Up The Week

Despite a rough start to the week, Friday’s as-expected inflation report stopped the selloff which had been plaguing the indexes for weeks and provided a bit of relief for Bulls. Overall, September has absolutely not lived up to its reputation of being the worst month in markets with the S&P 500 up more than +3.50% on the month.

Let’s take a deeper dive into the news that moved markets this week plus what might happen with next week’s gameplan…

Market News

Jobless claims better than expected

On Thursday, the labor market proved itself to be stronger than some had thought as jobless claims came in at 218,000, quite a bit less than the consensus estimate for 235,000, reported CNBC. While a strong job market is a good thing for the U.S. economy, the stronger-than-expected numbers sent stocks down for the fourth day in a row; if the labor market is strong, the Federal Reserve cuts will simply stoke inflation and not fight a weakening job market as was intended.

With more good news for the economy, the U.S. gross domestic product showed a gain of 3.8% in the second quarter which was an increase of 0.5% from the previous estimate. Once again, a strong economy is great for the average consumer but does put future rate cuts into flux as well as bring questions as to what kind of inflation we might see resulting from the Fed’s 0.25% cut last week.

Core inflation held at 2.9% in August, as expected

On Friday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation, showed core inflation held at 2.9% in August, as expected by consensus, reported CNBC. With inflation not spiraling out of control like the Bears have been prophesizing it would, the welcomed PCE numbers caused stocks to have a relief rally after the indexes had been under selling pressure for most of the week.

Additionally, the report showed that the American consumer is far more resilient than many had thought, continuing to spend in spite of potential economic headwinds. “Net, net, consumers literally hit it out of the park with very strong gains in spending not just for August, but June and July as well,” said Chris Rupkey, Chief Economist at Fwdbonds. “Summer was the time for consumer revenge spending after hunkering down in retreat from the shops and malls during the uncertainty and fear produced by the White House tariff rollout in April and May.”

Next Week’s Gameplan

Next week, we get some datapoints on the U.S. housing market on Monday and Tuesday along with the consumer confidence survey results on Tuesday, too. Next week’s big news comes on Friday, though, as we get the payroll report for September with expectations of 22,000 jobs and a 4.3% unemployment rate.

With the market not in earnings season, a lot of the price action is simply the result of investor sentiment. So far, September has not provided the seasonal weakness many were expecting despite the month-end weakness; September is still a very, very green month!

Let’s see if the Bulls can maintain the momentum as we head into October!

Join me back here next Friday and we’ll go over all the week’s events, friends!

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

The $92K Prophecy: Are the Bears Finally Getting Their Day?

The Bears decisively took over the momentum this week in Bitcoin, sending Bitcoin careening lower after it set last week’s high at $117,998.17. Bitcoin made short of last week’s higher low at $114,395.84, slicing through it and not finding support until Thursday at $108,623.70 breaking below even other key levels of past support.

As I mentioned last week, Bears were pointing out that the -13.88% pullback from Bitcoin’s all-time high would be the shallowest in history – not an impossible feat but a very unlikely one. At this point, it’s quite possible we could see Bitcoin pull back even further than $107,250.00 – its current cycle low – as early as within the next week!

The Bullish Case

Bulls keep grasping at straws to explain why the series of lower-highs and lower-lows on the long-term timeframes are anything but bearish. Bulls argue that key levels of support continue to hold and that buyers are pouring in to buy up Bitcoin at these levels, however it’s hard to argue that these buyers may become exhausted if the selling pressure continues as it has.

The Bearish Case

The Bears have retaken the narrative, arguing that the ongoing weakness in the equity markets isn’t helping Bitcoin’s case at all. In fact, despite Bitcoin’s weakness acting as a warning against potential weakness in the rest of the risk-on markets, Bitcoin has failed to demonstrate any rotation into strength. The Bears are pressing the argument with many believing that $100K will be in play in the coming weeks (with some more permabear types arguing for even lower lows under that key support level).

Bitcoin Trade Update

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto…

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges – Gemini and Coinbase – in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin’s price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.
• In May, Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $112,000.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -12% to a low of $98,247.01.
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +25% to a new all-time high of $123,231.07.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -14% to a low of $107,250.00

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.