Summing Up The Week

It was a wild week for the markets when the Labor Department came out with shocking revisions to the job market numbers showing a surprise decrease of 911,000 jobs which sent stocks lower… at least initially. Investors continue to hold to the promise of a rate cut being good news and even shrugged off reports showing inflation is on the rise for consumers.

Is the economy headed into a recession? Are we experiencing stagnation? It seems like all news is good news for stocks which keep making record highs!

Let’s take a deeper dive into the news that moved the markets this week…

Market News

Labor Dept revises March jobs down 911K, far more than expected

On Tuesday, the Labor Department released a report revising the job count in March 2025 down 911,000 from initial estimates, indicating the job market is much weaker than expected, reported CNBC. Typically, the revisions reports that follow the monthly payrolls reports aren’t that newsworthy, however a revision of this substantial size was quite a surprise.

“The BLS’ preliminary benchmark revisions to nonfarm payrolls show a much weaker labor market over most of 2024 and early 2025 than previously estimated,” said Oren Klachkin, Market Economist at Nationwide Financial. “Importantly, the slower job creation implies income growth was also on a softer footing even prior to the recent rise in policy uncertainty and economic slowdown we’ve seen since the spring. This should give the Fed more impetus to restart its cutting cycle.”

While stocks remained fairly flat after the report, Bitcoin dropped nearly 2% almost immediately after the report was released. Given how Bitcoin is usually closely correlated to tech stocks, this price action struck me as particularly odd.

Producer inflation cools more than expected

On Wednesday, the Producer Price Index (PPI) came in surprisingly cooler than expected, showing a decline of 0.1% versus expectations for a 0.3% rise, reported CNBC. Combined with the weaker than expected revised March jobs numbers release on Tuesday, the markets took off. Yes, the potential the U.S. economy is entering a recession (weakening labor market with disinflation or even deflation) is preferable to the economy entering stagflation (weakening labor market with rising inflation).

“Net, net, the inflation shock that was not is rocketing markets higher as inflation barely has a heartbeat at the producer level which shows the tariff effect is not boosting across-the-board price pressures yet,” said Chris Rupkey, Chief Economist at Fwdbonds. “There is almost nothing to stop an interest rate cut from coming now.”

Consumer inflation comes in hotter than expected

On Thursday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reversed the PPI’s results, reporting a rise of 2.9% in consumer prices in August, an increase from July’s 2.7% and the fastest pace of inflation since January. Despite this being a potential sign of an economy entering into stagflation and not recession, stocks still rallied on the back of the news.

Economists warned that inflation will likely continue to rise into the future. “Inflation is uncomfortably high and it’s accelerating,” said Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s. “I think we should expect a further acceleration in inflation over the next six to 12 months.”

A large share of clothing imported to the U.S. apparel comes from Asian nations where tariffs have risen considerably, “Tariffs are all over the apparel prices,” said Zandi. “They’ve risen quite strongly the last few months.”

Next Week’s Gameplan

Next week’s the big one. Forget about retail sales numbers coming out on Tuesday which might give some insight into consumer spending and economic strength, Wednesday is the Federal Reserve meeting with their interest rate decision. The market is certain they’ll cut, but the big question is by how much? Plus, will Chair Jerome Powell be dovish or hawkish during the press conference?

With so much wishy-washy data coming out this week, how will the weakening labor market and confusing inflation picture play a role in where the Fed thinks they should go from here? 

Hang on to your portfolios because it promises to be a wild ride! Then, meet me back here next Friday so we can go everything that took place, friends!

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

The Bulls Are Back: Bitcoin’s Bounce That Baffled the Bears

The Bitcoin Bulls finally turned around the price action over the past week. First, Bitcoin set a much higher weekly-low on Saturday at $109,993.00. Then, Bitcoin saw a decent rally through last week’s high at $113,390.00 and broke through resistance to create a higher weekly-high at $116,365.54 on Friday.

The Bullish Case

Bulls believe the significant bounce, retest, finding of support, and rally is an indication that the bearish downward momentum has been successfully flipped. The next key upside resistance level is $117,416.73, a point of resistance made a few weeks ago, followed by $123,231.07 before it’s time to contend with Bitcoin’s current all-time high at $124,533.00.

The Bearish Case

Bears calling for a complete breakdown of Bitcoin over the weekend had their calls completely thwarted when the buyers stepped in. Sure, there’s still a chance that Bitcoin gets rejected in a big way and crashes, but the odds are favoring the Bulls right now. Some Bears believe next week’s Fed rate cut decision will cause Bitcoin to sell off, but, for me, I’m leaning toward the Bulls right now.

Bitcoin Trade Update

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto…

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges – Gemini and Coinbase – in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin’s price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.
• In May, Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $112,000.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -12% to a low of $98,247.01.
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +25% to a new all-time high of $123,231.07.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.