Summing Up The Week

The name of the game this week was mixed inflation reports. Initially, the markets roared higher on the back of consumer prices rising less than expected in July only to get jolted when wholesale prices came in hot on Thursday. 

While businesses experiencing higher-than-expected inflation could be a sign that inflation will trickle down to consumers, too, the stocks largely shrugged off the bad news with the stock market closing the week higher than it started.

Let’s take a deeper dive into the news that moved the markets this week…

Market News

Consumer prices rise 2.7% in July, less than expected

On Tuesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) provided some relief against bearish expectations of rising inflation due to tariffs, coming in a 2.7% annually and 0.2% for the month in July, less than expectations for 2.8% and 0.2%, respectively, reported CNBC.

Economists seemed almost relieved that tariffs have finally started showing up in the CPI, “The tariffs are in the numbers, but they’re certainly not jumping out hair on fire at this point,” former White House economist Jared Bernstein said on CNBC. 

However, others warned that the tariffs may still have more pronounced effects in the future. “Inflation is on the rise, but it didn’t increase as much as some people feared,” said Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. “In the short term, markets will likely embrace these numbers because they should allow the Fed to focus on labor-market weakness and keep a September rate cut on the table. Longer term, we likely haven’t seen the end of rising prices as tariffs continue to work their way through the economy.”

Wholesale prices come in hot, rising 0.9% in July

On Thursday, the Producer Price Index (PPI) which shows the prices businesses pay showed much hotter inflation than expected, coming in at 0.9% for July versus %0.2 estimates, reported CNBC. This is a particularly nasty sign of potential weakness for the economy as inflation starts from the “top down,” with businesses – the producers of products – seeing their raw goods’ prices increase which they then pass down to consumers.

In addition, not only did producers see an increase in goods inflation, there was also an increase in services inflation. In fact, services inflation provided a significant portion of the increased figures, moving 1.1% higher in July for its largest gain since March 2022.

As one might expect, the markets rolled over initially at the open but, surprisingly, went on to recover all of the losses and finish the day flat.

Next Week’s Gameplan

With the majority of S&P 500 having reported earnings and the big inflation reports for the month behind us, next week could provide some unexpected surprises since we don’t have much in the way of significant economic datapoints.

On Monday, we get to see how home builders feel about the state of the economy with the release of the Home Builder Confidence Index. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve releases the minutes from their last meeting which likely won’t provide any surprises. Finally, on Thursday, we get S&P’s flash PMI for services and manufacturing.

Over in my portfolios, all I have next week in the way of earnings is Palo Alto Networks (PANW) on Monday after the market closes which could provide a bit of insight into how companies are spending on cybersecurity in the face of inflation.

So, next week could be surprisingly volatile (or surprisingly boring) depending on how the unknown events go, and, as you know, I will meet you back here to discuss all the market’s moves next Friday, friends!

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

Bulls Roar, Bears Retaliate: Bitcoin’s Tug-of-War at the Top

Bitcoin proved the Bears wrong this week and made a new all-time high, breaking through the prior ATH at $123,231.07 and setting the new high on Thursday morning at $124,533.00 before pulling back rather dramatically following the release of hotter-than-expected inflation data in the form of the Producer Price Index (PPI). That being said, Bitcoin also set a new higher weekly-low last Friday at $115,800.00.

The PPI measures the cost of business needs – the prices businesses pay for raw materials and labor – and the PPI came in significantly hotter than the estimates at +0.9% for July versus the much more tame +0.2% expected. As a result, all risk-on assets – which still includes Bitcoin – rolled over to start the day.

However, equities recovered by the end of the day while Bitcoin still remained under pressure going into the market close.

The Bullish Case

Bulls were able to breathe a sign of relief after Bitcoin proved the pullback to $111,903.68 was simply the setting of a wider price consolidation before good ol’ Orange broke through to new all-time highs. That being said, the reversal on the inflation data could throw a wrench in the Bulls’ plans. Despite this, some of the more bullish Bulls are still making calls for $139,000 and higher before the end of August.

The Bearish Case

Bears once again have to “put up or shut up,” and, after the past week’s price action, Bitcoin has told them to do the latter. It looked as if even the permabears were going to have to hang up their claws until Thursday’s inflation data threw an extra arrow in the Bear Case quiver.

Personally, I’d love to see Bitcoin pull back quite a bit now that I have reset my trade and would like to add at lower prices. Accordingly, read on to see my updated Key Selloff Targets reflecting Bitcoin’s new all-time high and what we might expect to see if Bitcoin pulls back to key levels it has from prior all-time highs in the past.

Bitcoin Trade Update

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto…

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges – Gemini and Coinbase – in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin’s price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.
• In May, Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $112,000.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -12% to a low of $98,247.01.
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +25% to a new all-time high of $123,231.07.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.