Summing Up The Week

The stock market was humming along all week, ignoring tariffs and shrugging off the Federal Reserve keeping the interest rate steady… until Friday’s jobs report when all hell broke loose.

Stocks have been trending higher based on the concept that the United States’ economy was dynamic on resilient with many pointing to a strong labor market as the reason the Bull Market could continue unabated. However, the jobs report delivered nothing but bad news.

Let’s take a deeper dive into what happened to markets this week…

Market News

Trump announces EU trade deal with 15% tariffs

Ever since his re-election, President Donald Trump has certainly made it clear that even weekends won’t be free of market-moving catalysts. On Sunday, Trump announced that he had reached a trade deal with the European Union (EU) in a press conference European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, reported CNBC.

The deal imposes a 15% on most European goods to the United States, including automobiles. Some products such as aircraft and some chemicals and pharmaceuticals will not be subject to tariffs.

Trump said that the 27-member bloc also agreed to purchase $750 billion worth of U.S. energy and invest an additional $600 billion worth of investments into the U.S. above current levels. He said that the bloc would also be “purchasing hundreds of billions of dollars worth of military equipment,” but did not provide a specific dollar amount.

“It’s a very powerful deal, it’s a very big deal, it’s the biggest of all the deals,” Trump said Sunday alongside von der Leyen. “It’s a good deal, it’s a huge deal, with tough negotiations,” von der Leyen said after the meeting.

Trump announces 25% tariff on India plus “penalty”

On Wednesday, President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on India beginning August 1 with an additional “penalty” for trading with Russia, reported CNBC. Trump did not specify what the penalty would be, however he did state that it was a result of India’s energy purchases from Russia during the Ukrainian War.

“Remember, while India is our friend, we have, over the years, done relatively little business with them because their Tariffs are far too high, among the highest in the World, and they have the most strenuous and obnoxious non-monetary Trade Barriers of any Country,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Trump continued, “Also, they have always bought a vast majority of their military equipment from Russia, and are Russia’s largest buyer of ENERGY, along with China, at a time when everyone wants Russia to STOP THE KILLING IN UKRAINE — ALL THINGS NOT GOOD!”

Fed holds key interest rate, Powell says not ready to cut

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced they would keep the key interest rate steady with no cut, as expected, however Fed Chair Jerome Powell sent the market rolling when he said the Fed was “not ready” to cut, reported CNBC.

The markets had been anticipating at least one rate cut this year with more than 60% believing it would happen in September, however Powell had a different tact in mind during the press conference, “We have made no decisions about September,” he said. “We don’t do that in advance. We’ll be taking that information into consideration and all the other information we get as we make our decision.”

That news, combined with Trump announcing a 50% tariff on copper, sent the markets rolling over and heading lower on Wednesday afternoon into the close.

June inflation in-line with expectations

On Thursday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation, showed an increase of 0.3% in June, in line with economist expectations. Inflation did tick a bit higher than analyst expectations on a year-over-year basis, coming in at 2.6% versus 2.5%, reported Morningstar.

Markets shrugged off the PCE report on the back of news of Trump delaying the tariff deadline with Mexico, keeping the 25% tariffs in place for 90 days as talks continued, reported CNBC.

U.S. added 73K jobs in July, much lower than expected

On Friday, the July jobs report showed the United States added only 73,000 jobs in July which was much lower than the already-underwhelming estimate for 100,000 jobs from Dow Jones, reported CNBC. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, as expected, however the combination of fewer jobs and a tick up in unemployment resulted in stocks selling off substantially. 

Economists pointed out this entire report indicates a weakening economy. “This is a gamechanger jobs report,” said Heather Long, Chief Economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “The labor market is deteriorating quickly.”

“This is the slowdown that we’ve been expecting,” said Luke Tilley, Chief Economist at Wilmington Trust. “Firms are facing a very different cost structure. They need to adapt to a new cost structure, which means holding off on hiring.”

Next Week’s Gameplan

In terms of economic news, next week finally sees a break after this past week’s chock-full news schedule. We will receive services ISM & PMI on Tuesday as well as the consumer credit report on Thursday, but the rest of the news next week is earnings.

Here are the earnings reports I’ll be watching for my holdings:

• Monday: IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX) reports Before Market Open (BMO).
  Palantir Technologies (PLTR) reports After Market Close (AMC).
• Tuesday: Caterpillar (CAT), Lemonade (LMND), and Zoetis (ZTS) report BMO.
  AMD (AMD), Rivian (RIVN), and Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) report AMC.
• Wednesday: Disney (DIS), Genius Sports (GENI), and Shopify (SHOP) report BMO.
  Dutch Bros (BROS), DraftKings (DKNG), Nutrien (NTR), and Virgin Galactic (SPCE) report AMC.
• Thursday: Yeti (YETI) reports BMO. Block (XYZ), Brookfield (BN), Pinterest (PINS), Take Two Interactive (TTWO) and Twilio (TWLO) report AMC.

So, while there might not be a lot of macro news headed my way, there will be plenty of earnings catalysts that could push my stocks around! I’ll meet you all back here next week to discuss it, friends!

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

Have the Buyers Burned Out? Why a Bitcoin Pullback Might Be Brewing

Bitcoin’s price consolidation continued to get tighter over the past week before breaking down on Friday. The Big Orange Crypto broke below last week’s low at $114,750.00 before finding support at a new lower weekly-low at $114,058.29.

Combined with Bitcoin’s inability to make a higher weekly-high – it made a lower weekly-high at $119,839.00 on Monday – and we have the makings of a potentially bearish breakdown.

The Bullish Case

Bulls continue to point to the momentum thrust that has taken Bitcoin from its April low to its current all-time high as the reason to still believe this consolidation will break out to the upside and that the lower weekly-low just represents a wider trading range than previous weeks. That being said, it’s hard to argue that the current price action is a positive sign for Bitcoin.

The Bearish Case

Bears continue to pound the table that the buyers have exhausted themselves and that Bitcoin is due for a major pullback. More reasonable Bears believe we could see a test of the $100K support level which would represent an -18.85% pullback from Bitcoin’s all time.

Such a pullback is incredibly common in Bitcoin’s past with pullbacks of that amount and more occurring as part of an ongoing Bull Market. Naturally, if we see Bitcoin drop down to those levels (or lower, as some Bears believe will happen), I will not see that price action as Bearish, and, rather, will be adding to my position when and if Bitcoin heads lower.

Bitcoin Trade Update

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto…

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges – Gemini and Coinbase – in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin’s price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In April, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $74,420.69.
• In May, Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $112,000.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -12% to a low of $98,247.01.
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +25% to a new all-time high of $123,231.07.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.