Summing Up The Week

It’s kind of funny how the stock market works: when everyone knows an event is coming up, the market prices in wild price swings, and, sometimes, when the event happens and it’s exactly what everyone expected, there’s no move at all.

That’s exactly what happened this week the Nvidia (NVDA) earnings call. The stock was pricing in an 8% potential move in either direction and the entire market felt braced to either rally or sell off, except, when the earnings came out, nothing happened.

Instead of an 8% move in either direction, Nvidia basically flat-lined in after-hours trading initially despite reporting a blowout quarter and providing good forward guidance. 

It’s all a long way of saying: when it comes to the stock market, nobody knows nothing.

In the meantime, let’s take a look at the news that did move markets this week…

Market News

Warren Buffett has $344B in cash but doesn’t explain why

During the annual Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) meeting last Saturday, CEO and legendary investor Warren Buffett revealed that he had sold significantly more stocks in the latest quarter and increased his cash holdings to a record $334 billion but didn’t explain why in his annual letter, reported CNBC.

With a nearly-superhuman track record of investing, many professionals pay close attention to Buffett’s cash position as they believe it can provide insights into the investor’s sentiment. Buffett has been known to use his large cash supplies to fund key deals during times of economic stress such as when he propped up banks during the Great Financial Crisis or when he helped out struggling oil companies during the COVID-19 Pandemic.

While some investors suggest that Buffett sees an epic selloff coming to the stock market, the reality is that there might simply not be any investments he sees as interesting currently. “Often, nothing looks compelling; very infrequently we find ourselves knee-deep in opportunities. Greg has vividly shown his ability to act at such times as did Charlie,” Buffett said.

Consumer Confidence drops to 8-month low on Trump tariffs

On Tuesday, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence survey showed respondents extremely concerned about the effects of Trump’s proposed tariffs on inflation with the index dropping 7.0 points in February to an eight-month low at 98.3, reported MarketWatch.

The vast majority of the United States’ Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is dependent on consumer spending, so if consumers choose to hold back purchases due to low sentiment, the reaction to GDP will certainly not be positive.

Combining the survey results with Wal-Mart’s (WMT) profit growth warning in its earnings last week resulted in the stock market continuing to sell off on Tuesday with even non-correlated “risk-off” assets like gold plunging in sympathy.

Trump’s relentless tariff talk terrifies markets

On Thursday, President Donald Trump once again announced the tariffs will go through on Mexico and Canada, this time on March 4, also announcing an additional 10% tariff on China to start the same date, reported CNBC. Although much of the world has become accustomed to Trump’s approach to negotiation of making dramatic, but empty, threats which he pulls back at the last minute to make every negotiation appear to be a wild victory, the markets still react negatively to potential tariffs.

“We cannot allow this scourge [of illicit drugs] to continue to harm the USA, and therefore, until it stops, or is seriously limited, the proposed TARIFFS scheduled to go into effect on MARCH FOURTH will, indeed, go into effect, as scheduled,” Trump wrote.

PCE hits 2.5% in January, high but expected

On Friday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, showed an increase of 0.3% for January to 2.5%, higher than the Fed’s 2.0% target but in-line with economist expectations, reported CNBC.

The Fed has repeatedly stated that its target inflation rate is 2.00% and Fed Chair Jerome Powell has made it very clear that he intends to hit that rate. As a result, any additional benchmark interest rate cuts have been pushed back significantly with the market consensus believing we won’t see another rate cut until September, at the earliest.

Given how the datapoints had been coming in hot over the week, the markets saw this in-line release as a bit of reprieve so stocks bounced initially when the market opened on Friday.

Next Week’s Gameplan

On Monday, we get the manufacturing ISM and PMI figures followed by the services ISM and PMI on Wednesday. The big news next week will be February’s jobs number which comes in the form of Friday’s payroll report. This report will be key as it will show the effects of Elon Musk’s DOGE department massive job cuts in the Federal government.

Believe it or not, I still have some stragglers who haven’t reported earnings, yet, with a few coming next week. Crowdstrike (CRWD) comes out after the bell on Tuesday and Costco (COST) announces after the market close on Thursday.

Whether or not this wild volatility continues, I’ll see you back here Friday, friends!

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Crytpo Corner

Bitcoin Price Action

Bitcoin… BREAKDOWN!

As I warned in last week’s update, I felt that the Bitcoin Bulls were far too optimistic thinking the bottom was in, and, man, was I right. Even the long-term support at $89,164.12 which all the Bulls were screaming “would never break,” well, it broke, and badly… on Monday with Bitcoin careening down to $86,784.77 before finding support.

The situation didn’t improve, either, with the Bears carrying Bitcoin through that brief support and further down on Wednesday to a new support level at $82,111.12.

… but the Bears still weren’t done!

On Thursday evening, Bitcoin dropped even further, cracking through $80,000 and not stopping until… $78,167.81! With no real past price action in these ranges, support at these levels remains precarious.

In other words, MUCH lower lows could be in store before Bitcoin truly bottoms.

Below $80K, we have a substantial air gap with the next level of support likely to be around $70,000, Bitcoin’s all-time high from 2021 which should now provide support rather than resistance. After that, the “Next Support of Last Resort” is a trendline I’ve been using since I started trading Bitcoin in 2017 and it often acts as a magnet. That bugger of a trendline is down around $62K.

So, there’s still plenty more room for Bitcoin to fall. Will it? No one knows for sure.

The Bullish Case

Bulls believe this pullback is a buying opportunity (and I agree) with most arguing Bitcoin cannot fall as far as it has in the past (to this, I disagree). Their stance is that so many new buyers will be rushing in to snap up the big orange crypto at these “discount prices” that the buyers will support the price and cause it to rally from its current lows.

The Bearish Case

Bears believe that a test of $70K-$72K is virtually certain as that was Bitcoin’s previous all-time high from 2021 and received a double-top test that failed to the tune of a selloff in excess of -27% before rallying in 2024. I think a drop to $70K would be a significant buying opportunity and premium members will notice that I increase how much I buy at key price ranges as Bitcoin sells off. As hard as it seems, these dramatic selloffs are always buying opportunities.

It’s also worth noting key levels of prior Crypto Winters and selloffs from Bitcoin’s past all-time highs. Some percentage selloffs from past all-time highs are:

• -26.31% = $80,342.16 ← Note: Bitcoin having broken below this level COULD mean it has already bottomed; this is no longer the shallowest pullback from an all-time high.

• -30.27% = $76,024.68

• -31.24% = $74,967.12

• -39.53% = $65,928.76

• -40.24% = $65,154.67

And those are just garden-variety selloffs. In 2022, Bitcoin sold off -77.59% from its all-time high. That would give us a bottom price target of $24,433.00 from our current all-time high. In 2018, Bitcoin sold off 84.27% from its all-time high, giving us a price target of $17,149.98.

PLAN. ACCORDINGLY.

Bitcoin Trade Update

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Not Your Keys, Not Your Crypto…

In light of brokerage failures in 2022, I no longer keep any of my crypto on an exchange and I only keep enough USD on the exchanges I use to execute my next few buys. I use multiple cold wallets from the brands Ledger and Trezor to hold my crypto (click the links to access the direct sites, and I receive no affiliate benefits from these links).

Additionally, I have now divided my allocated USD between two different exchanges – Gemini and Coinbase – in case one (or both) becomes insolvent. Disclaimer: We both receive a bonus if you use my Gemini referral link to open an account.

I do not trust anyone in the space, even with Coinbase (COIN) being publicly traded (and one of my own Investments in Play positions).

No price target is unrealistic in the cryptocurrency space – Bullish or Bearish.

While traditional stock market investors and traders may think the price targets in the cryptocurrency space are outlandish due to the incredible spread (possible moves include drops of -90% or more and gains of +1000% or more), Bitcoin has demonstrated that, more than any speculative asset, its price is capable of doing anything.

Here are some of Bitcoin’s price movements over the past couple of years:

• In 2017, Bitcoin rose +2,707% from its January low of $734.64 to make an all-time high of $19,891.99 in December.
• Then, Bitcoin crashed nearly -85% from its high to a December 2018 low of $3128.89.
• In the first half of 2019, Bitcoin rallied +343% to $13,868.44.
• In December, Bitcoin crashed -54% to a low of $6430.00 in December 2019.
• In February 2020, Bitcoin rallied +64% to $10,522.51.
• In March , Bitcoin crashed nearly -63% to a low of $3858.00, mostly in 24 hours.
• Then, Bitcoin rallied +988% to a new all-time high of $41,986.37 in January 2021.
• Later in January 2021, Bitcoin dropped -32% to a low of $28,732.00.
• In February, Bitcoin rallied +103% to a new all-time high of $58,367.00.
• Later in February, Bitcoin dropped -26% to a low of $43,016.00.
• In April , Bitcoin rallied +51% to a new all-time high of $64,896.75.
• In June , Bitcoin crashed -56% to a low of $28,800.00.
• In November, Bitcoin rallied +140% to a new all-time high of $69,000.00.
• In November 2022, Bitcoin crashed -78% to a low of $15,460.00.
• In April 2023, Bitcoin rallied +101% to a high of $31,050.00.
• In June, Bitcoin dropped -20% to a low of $24,750.00
• In July, Bitcoin rallied +29% to a high of $31,862.21.
• In September, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $24,900.00.
• In January 2024, Bitcoin rallied +97% to a high of $49,102.29.
• Later in January, Bitcoin dropped -22% to a low of $38,501.00.
• In March, Bitcoin rallied +92% to a new all-time high of $73,835.57.
• In August, Bitcoin dropped -33% to a low of $49,050.01.
• In January 2025, Bitcoin rallied +150% to a new all-time high of $109,358.01.
• In February, Bitcoin dropped -29% to a low of $49,050.01.

Where will Bitcoin go from here? Truly, anything is possible…

What if Bitcoin’s headed to zero?

DISCLAIMER: Anyone considering speculating in the crypto sector should only do so with funds they are prepared to lose completely. All interested individuals should consult a professional financial adviser to see if speculation is right for them. No Get Irked contributor is a financial professional of any kind.